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#11
09-18-2006, 11:55 AM
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Re: I know what I would tell someone who posted this hand....
I can't be the only person who min-raises UTG in the late stage of tournies with a big stack with a pretty wide range? I'll do this once if I think I'll get credit for a monster (which you do) or if I think that the BB will call and then fold.
You have to jam here. Don't let scum like me get away with it. 
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#12
09-18-2006, 11:57 AM
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Re: I know what I would tell someone who posted this hand....
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You say he doesn't fold much but only calls with AA/KK. That is not consistent. [/ QUOTE ] Basically, I am saying that I thought this was a bad attempt to see the flop with a speculative hand, or AA-KK. I thought it was AA-KK much more often. I think players will raise more if the know they may have to call a 5-9xBB push for 1/2 of there stack, if they dont have a big pair. You can't use the traditional hand range analysis to see how often he has AA-KK here. B/c I dont think there are any other hands that he would play like this with as much certainty as AA-KK. Lets say I assume he plays AA like this 90% of the time, I think he only plays AK like this 10% of the time. So even though he has AK 3x as often, I still expect him to have AA here more often than AK. Do you guys really think that someone who typically raises 3xBB, switches to 2xBB UTG, with a table full of stacks waiting to jam AJ, doesnt look pretty bad for JJ. Lets ignore pot odds and my stack for a second, I am worried about my read for the time being. [/ QUOTE ] No one miniraises AK/AQ UTG, but sometimes people make smaller raises in early position. Probably not a weak speculative hand, but could be ATs, KQs, JTs, 99, 55, or something like that. OK, so you fold the weak hands or you ahead of them and they call. You are 4-1 against AA/KK. Unless you have a strong read this is AA/KK, I think this is a call.
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#13
09-18-2006, 11:59 AM
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Re: I know what I would tell someone who posted this hand....
With J-J and <10 BBs all the money is going into the pot PF, except if theres a raise, a re-raise and a re-raise in front of me. That's the only time I'm folding.
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#15
09-18-2006, 12:03 PM
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Re: I know what I would tell someone who posted this hand....
[ QUOTE ]
You aren't deep enough to fold this, though it is closer than a lot of people are assuming. Party UTG raises late game are generally to be respected. [/ QUOTE ]
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#16
09-18-2006, 12:23 PM
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Re: I know what I would tell someone who posted this hand....
I know you guys are right, I am just playing devils advocate. Although, I do think it is closer than you think. (I do think $EV and CEV diverge some here, especially given the fact that I had an ATM in both seats to my left)
-also average wasnt more than 60K, I guessed in my OP, but then did the math afterwards. So the real reason I folded (and needed a friend to point it out). I have been on an insane run of 11th-30th place finishes. Since the middle of June, I have cracked 1000$ in winnings exactly 0 times online (but oddly enough, I cracked it both times I have played live). This included a night where I made top 15 in the 3$ and 5$ stars rebuys (9th and 14th), and last week where I took monster cheap leads into the final 30 of the 40K, and 100$ 2K added, and finished 27th and 13th respectively. Basically, I let it effect my play, and turned weak tight at the wrong (maybe) time. Oh well, we live we learn. Thanks
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#18
09-18-2006, 12:45 PM
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Re: I know what I would tell someone who posted this hand....
No way, thats someone else's job. I posted the hand.
FWIW, I think the math needs to be done a little differently here, and I think there is significant amount of declining marginal chip value at play here.
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#19
09-18-2006, 01:34 PM
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Re: I know what I would tell someone who posted this hand....
FWIW, my two last really annoying bust-outs involved min-raises UTG. The first was when UTG second CL called my reraise and the flop came like nothing that could have hit him and this was clear by the turn. So I put him in (I was table CL and this was $10r) and he had A2o (he'd flopped bottom pair) - he called off his whole stack and I was crippled. Second time, same raise, I was in BB and called with J9 - flop x9A, he donked again and I thought no reasonable ace is playing this way and pushed: A2s. And that was final table bubble with a medium stack. That was a £50.
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#20
09-18-2006, 02:23 PM
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Re: I know what I would tell someone who posted this hand....
[ QUOTE ]
I know you guys are right, I am just playing devils advocate. Although, I do think it is closer than you think. (I do think $EV and CEV diverge some here, especially given the fact that I had an ATM in both seats to my left) -also average wasnt more than 60K, I guessed in my OP, but then did the math afterwards. So the real reason I folded (and needed a friend to point it out). I have been on an insane run of 11th-30th place finishes. Since the middle of June, I have cracked 1000$ in winnings exactly 0 times online (but oddly enough, I cracked it both times I have played live). This included a night where I made top 15 in the 3$ and 5$ stars rebuys (9th and 14th), and last week where I took monster cheap leads into the final 30 of the 40K, and 100$ 2K added, and finished 27th and 13th respectively. Basically, I let it effect my play, and turned weak tight at the wrong (maybe) time. Oh well, we live we learn. Thanks [/ QUOTE ] Nice to have some honest personal analysis in the mix. Awesome avatar, btw.
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