BORGATA MAIN EVENT SATELLITE HAND

[Spee]

He said A9 not A9s. Unfortunately, I've already seen the results reading down through the posts. But my initial sense was that it is very very close between jam or dump, and the difference is probably whether the A9 is suited or not.

Again, this gets back to jamming as a semi-bluff. For the semi-bluff to be effective, there has to be at least a reasonable chance that everyone will fold, or if you get a caller that you have a reasonable chance to improve to the best hand.

The chances of getting all folds here are probably reasonable. However, if you are called you are almost surely going to be behind and you have a much better chance of improving to the best hand with A9s vs A9o.

[betgo]

A9s is definately better than A9o. However, the main thing is to push in a situation where you are not likely to get called. If you get called, it is likely by a big hand and A9s is not that much better then A3s or 74s or Q9o or whatever. We are really not concerned with cEV here.

[Spee]

I think if Hero gets called, then he is behind about 100% of the time. The issue is twofold. 1) Probability of getting all folds. 2) How far behind if called. (Almost surely much less futher behind with the suited Ace than the non-suited Ace.)

What are people calling with here given the play of the hand so far? Bigger Aces for sure, although first players in wouldn't have played it that way. Medium pairs probably, because smart blind players are dumping little pairs in this situation. And obviously if one of the blinds has a big pair then that is the risk of the steal. But so be it.

[Fishfood4you]

Spee,
I think you are underestimating the fact that this is a $500 satellite for the 10k main event seat. We are down to 20 players from 280 and 14 get seats. I am well aware of this as everyone else left. Given that we (I) have to assume the 3 remaining players to my left are chucking almost all pairs up to aa kk IMO. I think your hand ranges are correct for a normal multi tourney but not for this situation. Obviously i know that if i am called im in pretty bad shape because i feel i am getting called by aa kk possibly qq ak. Still not terrible shape no matter what unless its aa. That said the value of my hand is really not of importance IMO the suited nsuited is irrelevant. We are trying to position ourselves to win the seat and take down the 22k and get a little more of a cushion. Just my thoughts...thought this was a very situational decision that i am glad is getting some responces

[sdplayerb]

Has the pusher been pushing much?
If so, I call, if not I fold.
I really think you can fold there with 80K (not many people will though).
I much much rather be the one pushing or raising as people correctly fold such a high % of the time. Plus he is in a good spot with only 6 more people going out. He can raise his way in.

If the initial raiser was even one spot earlier, I fold it easily (unless the person is a maniac...like me).

In the sat where i won my WSOP seat (i hate to bring this up, but it is the most similar one to this and has similarities), I pushed from early position and a player in the middle with a comfortable, but not in, stack reraised allin with AK.

I had 77 or 66 (it was very close on the push or fold for me actually). I won.

Me and another player, i believe Durron from here, discussed it about 10 minutes later and agreed it was a big mistake by him, not due to the results, but all involved.

If I had 60K left, I call with AK.
How much longer til the blinds raise and what will they be? If they are going to double in 5 minutes, I become more apt to call.

So I fold here if:
1. The raiser is not a maniac and
2. Blinds and antes are not about to double

[sdplayerb]

um, you said results. what were they?
i gather he had AK, called, and you got knocked out?

Bad luck btw if so.