2/4 How often is this a bluff?

[henkeee]

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How often is this a flush semi-bluff, well that is read dependent, against my normal opponent 1 in 15. Why so low, bluffing in small pots is not a good idea. You bet into 3 opponents so you should have something.

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Why should bluffing be less likely in small pots? They are more likely to succeed when people don't think "the pot is big, so I call".

And, he didn't bet into 3 opponents. It is HU.

This is the "perfect" card for a bluffer. Possible OESD's, FD's and they love to bluff paired boards.

Again, I folded this small pot, but it would be interested to know approximately how often this is a bluff so you can apply it to other hands.

[Shooternewt]

You bet into 3 opponents not him (you misread that part of my post). It is unlikely he thought you were bluffing (possibly on a semi bluff with QT or Q9) so the call donk makes sense only with something he is betting for value. His donk is very unlikely to be a bluff as I stated before. To put in 1.5 BB in a 3 BB pot on a bluff against someone who has shown strength (you betting into 4 people)is a bad idea with nothing.

Again best case scenario for you is that he has only 12 outs. More likely than not you are drawing to 2 outs. How often this is a semi-bluff and not a value bet is unknown without a read and a general number is only guesswork; where I said 1 in 15.

[BenA]

*grunching*

First of all, how was the table? If its fairly tight, I would consider open-raising in MP2 with 66. The only money in the pot so far is from posters, and if you have a good chance of buying position or stealing this is a great play. If some blinds or posters complete, you've got flop fold equity.

You say assume a bad agressive player, but he is unknown? I suppose this is a general question? In this piddly little pot, many players will know this is a good bluff since you could fold lots of stuff without a K in it getting crap odds. Since he checked as a poster, the likelihood of a 5 goes up, but not that much. If he was the kind of guy who loves to wait for the more expensive bets to wake up with a good hand, you might lean to a fold. However, consider how the hand played out. You open-limped in MP, and are now just against random hands in the blinds. You bet because it was checked to you on the flop with the possible best hand. If villain is observant at all, he could put you on lots of hands that missed as well.

I think that of all three options, calling is the worst. You put yourself in a crappy situation of having to call down two against a possible better hand. I think its either a raise or fold. This is super-read dependant, so against an unknown, I probably fold. But if you know a player loves to bluff or bet marginal hands, I think raise. You have a chance of stealing it right there, or getting a free showdown. It also costs you the same ammount as calling down, but raising adds more chances of winning. Calling is out. Raise or fold.

[Harv72b]

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Assume a bad and loose villain that you don't have a read on, how often do you think this will be a bluff?

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Somewhere between very rarely & never.

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If we add the possibility that villain might fold a J or pocket pair, is it worth a free showdown raise in this small pot?

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No. Nobody folds on a paired board, not least of all an unknown, bad/loose opponent.

To answer your overall question, the only way this pot is going to be big enough to even consider the notion of continuing is if there were at least two preflop raises and a ton of callers, in which case your sixes aren't good anyway.

FWIW, I do like the flop bet when it's checked to you.

[James.]

hey henkee,

i wouldn't call. and i would probably check the flop; i sometimes bet if i have a very, very good read, but in that spot i check alot. the biggest key is the pot size.

Regards,

James