$105+9. Do you absolutely have to push here on button?

[JacJacAtk]

Did anyone actually run the numbers on this in SNGPT? It's far from an unexploitable push, and with SB on the default loose range BB has to be tighter than 25% (incidentally K8s is at the bottom of this range) for the FE to be worth enough to make this +$EV. There are some BB against whom folding this is probably correct. I think the chip advantage Hero has over SB might be the big factor at the moment.

[kickflip252]

it does seem that whenever i push with ace rag i get called by something silly and lose to it.

but if you do get called with A4, arent' you pretty much risked about $150 real dollars(approx the difference between 2nd and 3rdplace) for what will be pretty much a coin flip?

or does that not enter into it?

[DevinLake]

Based on the read given in the OP, we have to assume that the blinds are reasonable players. Against two reasonable calling ranges here, this is clearly a +$EV push. End of story.

If OP changes it to BB is a complete donk that will call off 40% of his stack here with weak holdings, the situation changes.

But, if people want to argue whether to push/fold here, then do so based on the OP. Adding an whole lot of ifs and or buts to the situation isn't really helpful.

[wiggs73]

kickflip,

you're risking $150 or whatever... of course you are. the problem is, even if you got dealt AA, you'd still be making the same risk. some percentage of the time, you'll still bust out in 3rd place no matter what.

if you want to get first, at some point you're gonna need to get chips. it doesn't always happen by winning an all-in, but sometimes it does. just picking up the blinds here is HUGE though, i mean it's monumental. doubling up would obviously be even bigger.

the idea here is this... say you go all-in...
some percentage of the time you pick up the blinds. according to icm, this increases your chances of winning because you now have more chips. it's easy to think about it like, what if you had all the chips but 1 - you'd be in good shape right? So here picking up 675 chips gives you a better chance of winning than not picking up the 675 chips does.

some of the time you'll get called if you go all-in. out of those times, you'll win some and you'll lose some.

the gist of it is - all else the same, the times you pick up the blinds plus the times you win an all-in will be enough to cancel the times you lose an all-in. there's a way to quantify that and it's called ICM. icm basically tells you whether a push is + or - EV. Not chip-wise, but money-wise.

now this sort of ties back to my first point - if a move is +EV, it's still not to make it simply because you might bust. a +EV move will make you money in the long run, end of story.

Not to sound cold or anything, but you are asking some extremely basic questions here and that's fine - everyone starts somewhere... but I think you really should spend your time reading the FAQ and checking out some of the links in there.

[kickflip252]

hey, i'm not taking offence at all.
like i said, a lot of the times i'm pushing with that hand as well, but all i did was offer a counter opionion because i thought that the all in was not absolute (i know it's a positive EV play) but sometimes i trust my gut when i play the game.
i'm not a huge money player yet, and still working on my game at the $5 sng level.
there are leaks in my game i'm sure, but over time i'm a winning player at this game, so if i do make a small mistake now and then, i just work on it.
my gut reaction to a weak ace at any time is to ditch it.
i've done so and went on to win the tourney at times as well as busting out in third place later.

thanks for the advise... it's also been fun stirring things up by adamantly sticking to the unpopular opionion. not to troll, but just to see how people react to it and what advice or abuse they have for said opionion.
much like sitting at the poker table, making people react to your "game" is always better than reacting to theirs.

[FoldYourLife]

[ QUOTE ]
hey, i'm not taking offence at all.
like i said, a lot of the times i'm pushing with that hand as well, but all i did was offer a counter opionion because i thought that the all in was not absolute (i know it's a positive EV play) but sometimes i trust my gut when i play the game.
i'm not a huge money player yet, and still working on my game at the $5 sng level.
there are leaks in my game i'm sure, but over time i'm a winning player at this game, so if i do make a small mistake now and then, i just work on it.
my gut reaction to a weak ace at any time is to ditch it.
i've done so and went on to win the tourney at times as well as busting out in third place later.

thanks for the advise... it's also been fun stirring things up by adamantly sticking to the unpopular opionion. not to troll, but just to see how people react to it and what advice or abuse they have for said opionion.
much like sitting at the poker table, making people react to your "game" is always better than reacting to theirs.

[/ QUOTE ]
The thing is, you are not in a situation to use your "gut". You aren't deciding on calling two all ins with a fairly strong hand. You are on the button, first to act, you cannot see the other players' faces, and you have a hand is a push 100% of the time in this specific situation.

[b33nz]

why is this thread 3 pages long? push.

[Shillx]

I'd prob fold but the stack size is kinda akward. A4 is kinda a transition hand but 7 bb is too much to push IMO. I still think that the shoving rank order applies but I could be wrong. Also if you fold the SB might push and go bust so you have to add some kind of min. edge to SNGPT. Maybe .3-.4%

Edit - 7 bb is below the threshold but it is still a fold imo. I'm getting a push at about +0.1% and that isn't enough.

[alvaroaze]

maybe its because you use 25 posts per page, which sux [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DuderinoAB]

[ QUOTE ]
sometimes i trust my gut when i play the game

[/ QUOTE ]

Kickflip,
I mean this in the most constructive way possible, but you and others like you are the reason that people like most of us are making money on sngs. Take this gut move out of your repetoire if you're going to play low limit sngs. The numbers are all you need to think about my friend. As others have mentioned, read the faq for some info on ICM. Read hands that are posted on the forum, buy SNGPT, post some hands of your own, and get better. If you do all the other things on that list you WILL get better. Good luck to ya.