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#1
09-15-2006, 12:52 PM
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Big Draw in position vs. a TAG wannabe
EP's recent post about playing a big draw in a multi-way, unraised pot got me thinking. What types of situations do you want to be more cautious with a big draw and avoid the normal bet/3-bet all-in line. (Not to mention that b/3b is really hard to do when you have position hehe.)
Villain is...unpredictable. He's standard, vanilla TAG preflop - statwise, at least. Post flop he's a bit schizophrenic. He's very aggressive on the flop, but will sometimes fold to pressure. He NEVER bets or raises on the turn - but almost never folds either. And he folds almost every river, if he gets that far. In fact in a bit over 100 hands, he's only seen showdown ONCE. Based on his postflop play, I'm not entirely certain that his preflop stats are all that indicitive of the cards he's playing. I'm running cold - lots of good starting hands (big Aces, suited/connected broadways, pairs, etc.), but I'm hitting the flop about never. Villain has started taking advantage of that fact by calling my PFR's OOP and then donk-betting on the flop. Most of the time I end up folding, or else folding UI on the river when the board still hasn't hit me. Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) MP ($32.80) Hero ($213.84) Button ($115.60) SB ($56.88) BB ($100) UTG ($26.40) Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) calls $3.50, BB calls $3. Flop: ($12) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $8</font>, Hero......? What's my line, and why? 
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#2
09-15-2006, 12:57 PM
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Re: Big Draw in position vs. a TAG wannabe
With your reads, I think you ry need to think about your sample size.
As for the hand, I think both calling and raising are fine, but I prefer calling. Reasons are that we might well have the best hand and the best draw. If we raise, we knock out nearly all worse hands and very few (if any) better ones. If we're ahead, surely we get more value by letting him bluff/value bet a worse hand. Lastly, if he b/3b us, we have to call and are usually not in great shape (never a decent fave, and sometime a 70/30 dog) EDIT: If I had something like 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I'd be much more likely to raise
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#3
09-15-2006, 01:20 PM
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Re: Big Draw in position vs. a TAG wannabe
[ QUOTE ]
With your reads, I think you ry need to think about your sample size. [/ QUOTE ] Yep, sample size sucks. His play has been really erratic, which makes it really hard to figure out what he's doing (if HE even knows heh). It almost feels like he's found himself a starting-hand chart and that's the limit of his poker education. [ QUOTE ] As for the hand, I think both calling and raising are fine, but I prefer calling. [/ QUOTE ] The only problem with calling is, if he continues to play the way he has so far, any money that goes in has to do so on the flop or turn. He's not calling even a single dollar on the river unless he's got the absolute God-forsaken nuts. Also, while he usually won't fold on the turn, he might still do so if the flush hits and I bet more than, say, half the pot. So if I'm ahead and/or my outs are good, I don't make much money by just calling. Then again, I don't loose much either. [ QUOTE ] If we raise, we knock out nearly all worse hands and very few (if any) better ones. [/ QUOTE ] Good point. It depends on whether or not villain has any sort of draw, and if he'll call down hoping to hit it. My gut feeling so far is that he will...but sample size....... [ QUOTE ] If we're ahead, surely we get more value by letting him bluff/value bet a worse hand. [/ QUOTE ] He's NOT betting on the turn, and he only bets the river if he's still way ahead. So I'm not getting any extra money out of him. [ QUOTE ] Lastly, if he b/3b us, we have to call and are usually not in great shape (never a decent fave, and sometime a 70/30 dog) [/ QUOTE ] A very valid, and worrisome point [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#4
09-15-2006, 01:24 PM
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Re: Big Draw in position vs. a TAG wannabe
[ QUOTE ]
With your reads, I think you ry need to think about your sample size. As for the hand, I think both calling and raising are fine, but I prefer calling. Reasons are that we might well have the best hand and the best draw. If we raise, we knock out nearly all worse hands and very few (if any) better ones. If we're ahead, surely we get more value by letting him bluff/value bet a worse hand. Lastly, if he b/3b us, we have to call and are usually not in great shape (never a decent fave, and sometime a 70/30 dog) EDIT: If I had something like 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I'd be much more likely to raise [/ QUOTE ] I agree with your analysis, just wanted to point out that if we had a lower pair and flush draw, raising would be better because our hand has less showdown value. Remember everyone, not all pair/flush draw is the same, just like not all straight draws or bare fd's have the same value even though they have the same number of outs. If we held 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] raising would be preferable.
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#5
09-15-2006, 01:25 PM
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Re: Big Draw in position vs. a TAG wannabe
Kyriefurro,
this is what i mean about sample size: [ QUOTE ] He's not calling even a single dollar on the river unless he's got the absolute God-forsaken nuts [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] He's NOT betting on the turn [/ QUOTE ] I'm sure I've played 100 or so hands when this could be said of me. And I'm very sure that I could've gone 100 hands without going to showdown a single time. If for some reason you are super confident of your read, call flop, call turn IF he bets but only play for flush value and if he checksl, bet turn and also bet any river
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#7
09-15-2006, 01:34 PM
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Re: Big Draw in position vs. a TAG wannabe
[ QUOTE ]
Kyriefurro, this is what i mean about sample size: [/ QUOTE ] You're right, of course [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [ QUOTE ] If for some reason you are super confident of your read, call flop, call turn IF he bets but only play for flush value and if he checksl, bet turn and also bet any river [/ QUOTE ] And what do we do if we decide our reads are junk (so he's basically unknown), which, based on his erratic play, they very well could be?
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