NFL Week 2 - Time to pound the dogs?

[20Five]

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Anybody have any dogs they like this week to win outright? GB? Minn? NYG? SF?

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I like Washington and Jacksonville

[kdog]

I like the Giants to win outright. I think GB and Minn have solid chances too.

[checkmate36]

GL with your pics.

I have a unit on Oak+12
and a unit on Clv +10

[Levarkin]

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The reality is that once you start laying 10+ points for a team at home or 7+ points for a team on the road you're putting yourself in a negative situation.

These teams may be "bad", but more often than not they cover the large numbers. Even if they rarely win the game you have a positive expectation with them at these high numbers.

It should also be obvious that these teams are more likely to be blown out by 14+ points, but this is because they don't win too much.

A good rule of thumb to follow is never lay more than 7 to 8 for a team at home, and never lay more than 6 for a team on the road.

If you can get double digits at standard odds you likely have a positive expectation. A majority of bettors either don't understand this or simply don't care. They love to bet for the blowout, but more often than not it simply doesn't happen.



[/ QUOTE ]I don't think I agree with this at all. There was some stat quoted in one of these posts around here...something like 81% of the teams that win the game outright end up covering the spread too. Forget the exact stat and numbers though, but it was recent so maybe someone else remembers it.

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The stat you've quoted is accurate and not at all relevant.

Edit: Sorry; I'm being a bit of a dick. At least I didn't ask "Do you see why?"

Thought experiment: two games, one with a 0.5-pt spread and one with a 100-pt spread. How often does the favourite or dog in the first game win and cover the spread? How often in the second game? That's all I'm on about. Big chalk games can not be evaluated with stats from average games.

[Murdz]

I can see the logic in your wagers. Good luck.