Probability Issues with Party Poker

[agoldenbear]

Over the last 4 days I've played at most 2000 hands at small stakes tables on PartyPoker.com. And that is a very generous estimate. It could be quite a bit less. Regardless, in the course of these 2000 hands I have seen ONE ROYAL FLUSH that someone hit on the river, as well as TWO STRAIGHT FLUSHES, both of which were hit ON THE FLOP. Based on the probabilities I've read, it seems highly unlikely that I should have witnessed these hands occur over the last four days, and as such I have come to doubt the legitimacy of PartyPoker. I've read some previous discussion on this site relating to poker sites and whether or not the could be rigged, and by and large, most posters dismiss these claims with authority. Do these occurences suggest fraud, or merely lucky flops? Thanks for the insight.

[Doyan]

Its random, you do realize that when something is random it dosen't always follow what should happen.... but over the course of time things eventually balance out, in the short term anything can happen, you could be dealt pocket aces 4 times in a row, is it likely to happen no, but could it happen yes.

Paranoia is funny [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[killsadie]

the only time i played 4/8 live i saw 3 straight flushes in about an hour.. stuff happens.

[PITTM]

i saw 3 blue cars in a row drive down the street today. what are the odds?

rj

[killsadie]

so that's how your post count is so high

[Harv72b]

I hit 4 straight flushes (one royal) on Party in the span of a week last month. Given a long enough timeline, all things are not only possible...they are certain. "Random" means that literally anything can happen in a given hand, and that necessarily means that the short-term results of your (or someone else's) hands will not always be consistent with the expected long term averages.

Build up a larger sample size, like a few million hands, and see if things are still way out of whack with probability.

[XmasXmas]

[ QUOTE ]
I hit 4 straight flushes (one royal) on Party in the span of a week last month.

[/ QUOTE ]

PP is so rigged in your favor.

[XmasXmas]

it's so hard to tell what's a troll post sometimes, but ok, i'll bite.

at a casino that i play at, they have a day of the week where there are two 3-hour blocks during which the highest hand is recorded. at the end of the 3-hours, the owner of the high hand is given $300. during peak hours, i believe the casino spreads about 30 tables, all limit or no limit hold'em. it's pretty difficult to get any non broadway quads to hold up in those 3 hours, and i've seen a K high straight flush knocked off by a royal for the high hand.

party runs a lot of tables, and more hands get dealt out online than live. lots of stuff can happen and will happen.

[naMruM]

Lessee.

Average 40K players per day X
say 2 tables per players X
say 75 hands per hour (splitting difference between 6-max and full ring) =
6MM hands per hour.

1 royal in 650K hands

Roughly 8.5 royals per hour.

Um. Yeah, no biggee.

[henkeee]

I once got four of a kind four times in a row at the same table. (Well, actually I folded a pocket pair in one of those hands that would have turned a four of a kind, but 3 out of 4 hands in a row is crazy too)