AA gets a all in raise on the turn

ftball0000 · #1 09-12-2006, 08:06 PM

Just happened... what do you think?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($49.50)
BB ($109.15)
UTG ($78.20)
MP ($69.09)
CO ($57.85)
Button ($22.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero (poster) raises to $2.75, BB calls $2.50, CO calls $2.50.

Flop: ($9) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $6, BB calls $6, CO folds.

Turn: ($21) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $15, BB raises to $94.58, Hero..........

This was tough for me. Should it be tough?

ftball0000 · #2 09-12-2006, 08:08 PM

by the way.. the was the 2nd hand at the table, hence no reads, and what about a flop push?

ToDissemble · #3 09-12-2006, 08:09 PM

Any reads or stats on villain thus far? What is your image at table like?

Edited by ToDissemble: never mind

Ignignokt · #4 09-12-2006, 08:28 PM

If it's like my nemesis from last night, it means he paid $6 to win $50 by calling a flop bet with 55 and spiking his set on the turn.

But enough about me. Yes, it's tough. If he had the nuts, or a nut-like hand, a rational player would be trying to coax more out of you instead of pushing, so it does look fishy. Also, why the the overpush, instead of just betting enough to put you all-in when he's got you way covered? (Granted, this is probably higher-level thinking than a lot of NL $50 players are capable of...)

I think there's a good number of possible hands that do this that you'd beat (KK, or JT, maybe in spades) and that you don't, but have outs to beat (87).

Without a read it's almost a coinflip for me. I'm hoping a wiser mind will provide enlightenment.

aces_dad · #5 09-12-2006, 08:33 PM

Don't push the flop, you still want to be called by worse hands, though I'd bet 7 instead of 6.

Getting almost 3:1 here (don't look at his push it's what you have left) I think this is a call.

ftball0000 · #6 09-12-2006, 09:13 PM

agreed, the overpush is what made me wonder so much. If he's got a set, or 2-pair or even the straight, I would think he would either let me keep hanging myself or minraise or something. Anyone else have any ideas.

ToDissemble · #7 09-12-2006, 10:35 PM

This is like, literally, the spot that most frequently leaves me clueless. Without reads its almost impossible to make a perfect decision. I'm usually going to lean towards calling, though. There are enough hands that you are beating that could conceivably push there. You also have outs on two pair hands. I know this has been stated already. My point is that even if you are behind on turn, which isn't for sure, you are more likely chasing two pair than a set. A set is more likely to try to milk a little more money out of you. Of course this is just speculation, but what else can you do without reads or stats?

Dan Bitel · #8 09-12-2006, 10:36 PM

call, we're good here often enough

kurto · #9 09-12-2006, 11:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
call, we're good here often enough

[/ QUOTE ]

Its so weird... I don't know if you're right. It boggles my mind just to consider that you're right. Though I have trouble imagining anyone doing this without 2 pair or better.

In other words, it feels so much to me like a fold because there's no hand villain could have that makes sense... unless we know the villian is just an idiot.

lacrymosa · #10 09-12-2006, 11:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
call, we're good here often enough

[/ QUOTE ]

is this a baluga theorem situation?