Turn Around's Fair Play

[bestcellar]

bah, nm...I'm probably brutally overthinking this like I do in all of these threads,

[DonT77]

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I know this is several levels up - but I just don't see a thinking player betting the turn in position when he pairs his king or makes his boat. I certainly don't see that in action very often.

Very rarely does a very good player play that fast with a monster. It's all usually about inducing the bluff or getting a huge hand paid off.

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Against a nit hero should bet here with Kx hands as well as other hands because he is not expecting nit to bluff the river. Also by not betting against a non-bluffer, hero would just be giving a free card to flush draw hands.

Also, as KramerTM pointed out, a smallish (2/5-1/2) turn bet by hero will sometimes induce a CR (although a CR is not a likely play from somebody is also unlikely to bluff the river) and hero knows this - so a good thinking hero should be betting with the goods here sometimes; otherwise, as you said, you could check-raise his bet with impunity.

General commentary: Sometimes 'getting a huge hand paid off' is more about betting to induce a raise than checking to induce a bet. I'm not saying this about anybody in particular, but I've seen many players lose huge EV by playing big hands too slowly. This is especially true if you are perceived as very aggressive, because you will get a lot of 'UR FOS' calls and CRs when you bet.

[LearnedfromTV]

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Just as a sidetrack, if MLG (or really any good thinking player) took the bet-the-turn line with me (or really, a lot of other players on 2+2), I would check raise that turn 100% of the time with any holding.

This is why I don't advocate a bet on the turn.

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That's really really exploitable. Ks of various strengths are definitely in a good player's range here--as is the occasional boat.

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I know this is several levels up - but I just don't see a thinking player betting the turn in position when he pairs his king or makes his boat. I certainly don't see that in action very often.

Very rarely does a very good player play that fast with a monster. It's all usually about inducing the bluff or getting a huge hand paid off.

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Look at the pot size in relation to the stacks and the fact that we just got done talking about how like 50% of foshios range is ahead of 99 and calling a bet. Why would any good player check w/ a K or a boat?

[Spee]

Your general commentary is why the 99 should be trying to keep the pot small. 99 has no hope of winning a huge pot here, small hope of winning a small pot and big chance of losing a small or a big pot, depending how much money he choose to stuff in there.

If opponent has trip kings or kings full, then the 9's are either drawing dead or very close to it. Opponent has to slow play the turn to give Hero a chance to catch up enough to stay interested.

I agree with what one other poster said that the best chance Hero has for taking this pot down is a two outer 9 on the river. So why bet into a turn check when the best way to catch that 9 is for free?

Betting into this turn is going to check raised so much by good players and the call is so tough to make that it is almost indefensible. Why put yourself in that spot?

I think BestCellar's analysis is right on the money.

[Spee]

Results?

[DonT77]

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Your general commentary is why the 99 should be trying to keep the pot small. 99 has no hope of winning a huge pot here, small hope of winning a small pot and big chance of losing a small or a big pot, depending how much money he choose to stuff in there.

If opponent has trip kings or kings full, then the 9's are either drawing dead or very close to it. Opponent has to slow play the turn to give Hero a chance to catch up enough to stay interested.

I agree with what one other poster said that the best chance Hero has for taking this pot down is a two outer 9 on the river. So why bet into a turn check when the best way to catch that 9 is for free?

Betting into this turn is going to check raised so much by good players and the call is so tough to make that it is almost indefensible. Why put yourself in that spot?

I think BestCellar's analysis is right on the money.

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I think you and BC bring up some good points. In my longest post in this thread you'll see that I said -
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If, OTOH, villain was more LAGgy, then I might advocate checking behind ATT because the EV you protect from pricing out draws by betting ATT will be offset by the times we you check ATT and pickoff bluffs ATR. So yeah, I think it's close, and once again "it depends on your read". </font>

If you think that villain is the type who would CR with air ATT or bluff the river then checking behind ATT and calling a river bet is probably the better play.

Also, I don't think we're as far behind as you seem to think. Do you think MLG called the flop bet because he was hoping to hit a 2-outter? Of course not, MLG called because he thought there was a good chance that he was ahead and that villain would check ATT if villain missed again on the turn.

Against extreme nits you might even get villain to lay down a better hand like TT-QQ. I've seen players make this play and show it as if I was supposed to be impressed with their great laydown. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[NoahSD]

Bump because this thread basically sums up everything that should go through a good players mind when he considers how to play a marginal hand in position.

[MLG]

I just realized I forgot to post results to this hand. I bet 400 on the turn, and he cr-ed and I folded. If he called though I was thinking of betting a lot of non-diamond rivers.

[bestcellar]

technically, isn't it "turn about is fair play"

sorry, but that was probably my last chance to be wrong in this thread