10-25 LIVE Borgreezy hand, bottom two vs. triplxxx from FTP

[Enzyme]

No offense to anyone, but if he didn't post that villain CR AI, there would probably be less people advising to check behind on the turn. IMO there is nothing wrong with the plan of betting the turn and folding to the CR, assuming that likelihood of villain CR twice in a row with the hand we beat is much bigger than CR with the draw and assuming that he calls with a very wide range of hands on the turn (looks like a pretty safe assumption).

I certainly understand the desire to check behind and call the river and keep yourself out of tough spots, but IMO that leaves a lot of money on the table. Besides, if one is not willing to be in tough spots, one might as well choose to not play short-handed deep stack poker against loose unpredictable players with no respect for money.

[NT!]

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No offense to anyone, but if he didn't post that villain CR AI, there would probably be less people advising to check behind on the turn.

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No offense to you, but if you read HSNL this is a pretty clear check behind regardless of what villain did, because a shove is obviously going to make hero puke.

NT

[Enzyme]

NT!
This doesn't make much sense. If hero has AK and the board is rainbow, the 8k shove into 3k pot would still make him puke. Are you suggesting checking that behind against a calling station too? If you would say that we don't want to call pot-sized bet on the river or you say that you think that CR is very likely here, then fine, I understand that. But when you say Hero should not bet, because there is a possibility of getting CR AI, without comparing it to possibility of getting called by worse hands and weighting expectation of both, that's just wrong. Hero is not committed to call CR.

[NT!]

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This doesn't make much sense. If hero has AK and the board is rainbow, the 8k shove into 3k pot would still make him puke.

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First, hero DOESN'T have AK. Second, if that shove would make him puke he might consider checking that hand behind too. But that shove doesn't bother me nearly so much vs. this villain.

Part of the reason the shove makes him puke with this hand is that hands like A4, A5 etc are all beating you as well as the usual monsters under the bed. Also hands like Ax of clubs have way more outs against you than they do against AK.

Personally, if I really thought villain had the NFD on the flop, I'd be more inclined to 3bet flop or bet the turn and call a push. But if the turn push is going to make hero sick (which it obviously would and did) he needs to check it back and play poker on the river.

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Are you suggesting checking that behind against a calling station too?

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Yeah, I pretty much make my posts in a vacuum without considering the [censored] dissertation OP wrote about this villain.

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But when you say Hero should not bet, because there is a possibility of getting CR AI, without comparing it to possibility of getting called by worse hands and weighting expectation of both, that's just wrong. Hero is not committed to call CR.

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Of course, why would I bother to consider whether hero is getting called by any worse hands before I post? That would make way too much sense. This villain can easily shove a lot of worse hands, and can also easily be getting tricky with hands that currently have you crushed. He is going to flat call you very rarely and if he does you should probably be almost as scared as if he shoved, if not more. THAT is why the checkraise makes Hero puke and that is why he should check back.

NT

[Enzyme]

See, this is what I don't understand. You are not inclined to think he has a NFD (I assume if you 3-bet the flop, you call a push). All the hand you name are way ahead of hero, so noone is puking if they push, you just fold your hand and move on, in fact, you are happy that he is pushing them, so you can fold and avoid costly mistakes on the river. As for villain pushing with many worse hands, I just don't agree with this. Also I don't agree with villain not calling with many worse hands (see 97o hand).

Look, I'm not here to convince everybody I'm right or anything, I'm here to learn. There is no need to bite my head off. OP made a very detailed post, which assumes this hand is not obvious, at least to him. You obviously read everything very carefully and considered all the possibilities, including 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], before you decided to submit your one-liner response without any analysis.

[thabadguy]

CALLCALLCALLCALLCALLCALLCALLCALLCALLCALL

[BobboFitos]

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CALLCALLCALLCALLCALLCALLCALLCALLCALLCALL

[/ QUOTE ]

[NT!]

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See, this is what I don't understand. You are not inclined to think he has a NFD (I assume if you 3-bet the flop, you call a push).

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Who is 'you'? Me? I wasn't in the hand, but I think the NFD is certainly part of his range here, I said so in my first post in this thread. More importantly, Hero said when he called the flop he put him on the NFD.

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All the hand you name are way ahead of hero, so noone is puking if they push, you just fold your hand and move on, in fact, you are happy that he is pushing them, so you can fold and avoid costly mistakes on the river.

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So when I said, "He can do this with a worse hand or be getting tricky with a hand that crushes you," what part of the 'worse hand' did you not get? Are you referring to the second part of my previous post, where I said "PART OF THE REASON...." and listed off a few better hands (out of the many hands he can have)?

LOL at folding now to prevent a costly mistake on the river. You are NEVER happy to get c/r a/i here unless you are ready to felt this hand. Here's a very simple reason why folding this turn to the c/r almost never saves us money vs. checking behind and calling the river.

Even if you give him a range that includes ZERO hands that you are currently beating, checking behind and calling a reasonable bet on the river has a higher EV (though still negative) than bet-folding the turn. If you bet-fold turn, you lose the 1500 every time. If you check behind and call up to 1500 on the river, you still lose it often, but you have given yourself a chance to draw out on your opponent. (say, catching a K vs. A5).

Now, anyone can tell that villain's range here includes MANY hands that hero can beat, including Ax of clubs, random bluffs, 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], etc. It also includes some hands against which hero has outs, even if he is drawing thin. Therefore, bet-folding this turn becomes a HUGE mistake because not only do you give yourself no chance to draw out, but you fold the best hand a fair percentage of the time.

You are basically advocating making an extremely costly mistake on the turn to avoid making a costly mistake on the river. Bet-folding this turn is easily the worst option available to our Hero.

As others have said, if you bet it has to be with the intention of calling. I can't fault anyone who says bet/call the turn, but it seems to me Hero doesn't want to make a decision for stacks here and doesn't know where he's at. To me, that means check back and plan to call most rivers.

NT

[BobboFitos]

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No offense to anyone, but if he didn't post that villain CR AI, there would probably be less people advising to check behind on the turn.

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No offense to you, but if you read HSNL this is a pretty clear check behind regardless of what villain did, because a shove is obviously going to make hero puke.

NT

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NO, YOU CALL, AND SAY "LOLER NICE MOVE"