MyTurn's week 3 CFB (9/14-9/16)

[Guyon]

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MT2R,

Your Rutgers/Ill pick in week 2 was a big winner. If you like to calculate EV, I was able to convince some Baton Rouge gamblers (who don't know much about football outside the SEC, still think highly of Illinois b/c of the 2001 Sugar bown, tout about Ron Zook (who coached at UF and Saints D-coor),and believe that still Rutgers sucks more than any team in the NCAA) to take Illinois at a Pick'em. Wow, I laughed so hard at their expense.

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Pick'em....that's AWESOME
lol

Funny, I thought they didn't really think much of Illinois either. Everytime I go down that way, I still get the "Tiger Bait" taunts and constant reminders of the Sugar Bowl if I wear anything that says Illinois.

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To some people, betting on a team that's +10.5=betting on a team to win outright. They just want to bet to either prove they are right or brag that the underdog won (in the event that they are aware that they are taking the UD).

Let me clarify about LSU fans thinking highly of Illinois b/c of the 2001 Sugar Bowl...They think highly of them because LSU won, so therefore Illinois being superior validates the win even more.

Speaking of LSU, what do you make of the LSU/Auburn line. I'm going to try and find an Auburn fan in my section who I can bet with while using "fanfare" to buy extra points.

[NajdorfDefense]

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I really like your Arizona State pick against CU. I would lay lots of points there, maybe even up to 20.

I do not like the over, unless you think that ASU will score 40+. the Montana State debacle under his belt.

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Even though ASU struggled to beat a 1-aa team their first week? 20?

[MyTurn2Raise]

in all seriousness, I haven't seen much of Colorado to suggest they are better than a 1-AA team

I wouldn't lay more than 12 though

I'll get indepth with my write-up of this game soon, but the cliff notes is expect ASU's offense to explode and Colorado to get a couple of scores.

[Number4]

I like it - TX loves to bounce back and beat up on these teams. I see them putting up at least 50 against Rice.

[Grasshopp3r]

Good point, but at least ASU beat their 1-AA opponent. I forget how much college teams improve in the early weeks of a season. Right now, CU looks hopeless. I would not lay 20, but Arizona beat Nevada 52-21. I am confident that ASU will not hesitate to run up the score on CU if given the chance.

Plus, I would also add that I am in Denver and my office neighbor just bought season CU tickets. I would consider him to be a BSP.

Maybe I am just over reacting as Hawkins lost the first two at Boise State only to win the conference that year. On the other hand, the Big 12 is not the WAC.

[Grasshopp3r]

Let me also add that CU has scored 20 points this season. Two consecutive 10 point offensive efforts. Montana State was just beat by a division 2 team. CSU is an in-state rival, so I would discount that game a little.

Some other lowlights of CU offensive production: No TD passes. Two field goals out of 4 attempts from a supposedly top kicker, though 2 attempts were 50+ yards. 181 yards for each of rushing and receiving for a total offensive production of 362 yards in two games. 65 runs 37 pass attempts and 17 completions.

[iggymcfly]

Even though grasshopper touched on it, let me just compare those openers again. Northern Arizona and Montana State are both below average Big Sky teams, but Montana State's definitely the worst of the two. They're returning seven starters this year, which has to be about the lowest of any D-I team in the country, and as mentioned they followed up their win over Colorado with a 35-24 loss to Division II Chadron State.

Northern Arizona's not a lot better, but they're at least a little better and they were semi-competitive with Utah for the first half as well. Also, Arizona State followed up their loss with a 31 point win over a very strong Nevada team, suggesting that the game was a fluke due to lack of motivation rather than a true test of their skill. And even though the NAU game was ugly, they still did win by 3 TDs. Colorado, meanwhile followed up their loss with... another loss meaning that they likely just aren't very good, and also since that loss was to a rival, they're likely to be very deflated going into the ASU game.

To recap:

vs. weak Big Sky teams:
ASU won by 21, CU lost by 9

vs. strong mid-majors:
ASU won by 32, CU lost by 4

I don't think ASU winning by 3 TDs is stretching it at all.

[Rake16]

MyTurn tell me what you think of these picks...
Syracuse +3.5 against a terrible Illi team
Ohio +17 against Rutgers... Ohio looked pretty good against NIU a la Garrett Wolfe.
LSU +3... I know its at AU but the Bayou Bengals are looking very solid right now. I believe their talented secondary will confuse Cox and look for at least 2 picks.
Last WVU only giving up 16 against a Terp team which is not that particularly strong... any thoughts would be appreciated

[MyTurn2Raise]

I obviously like the first two
I see no edge in LSU
I am riding iggymcfly's WVU pick for a small amount, but I got it at -14. -16 looks a bit too big for me, but I like that side much more than Maryland's.

[sfwusc]

Syracuse +3.5 against a terrible Illi team

I would let pinnacle have the 0.5 pt for the move of -111 to +103. I cant believe that 0.5 is worth 14cents.

-SFWUSC