20/40 TT UTG.. river decision

[adios]

Villan will misread his hand 1% of the time; he'll bet a busted flush draw 2% of the time; he'll think you're pushing it with 7 and he has you outkicked 1% of the time; and he'll make a "just in case" bet 2% of time. Voila 6% of the time you're good but your estimates have an error rate of plus or minus 50% so you call [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[Bill King]

[ QUOTE ]
Villan will misread his hand 1% of the time; he'll bet a busted flush draw 2% of the time; he'll think you're pushing it with 7 and he has you outkicked 1% of the time; and he'll make a "just in case" bet 2% of time. Voila 6% of the time you're good but your estimates have an error rate of plus or minus 50% so you call [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

wait!!! theres no misclick equity in live play?!?! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

uggghh

[mordecaibrown]

I make the call here.
14bb....
Also--how do you play the river if he checks?

[gamblore99]

i call this, the pot is huge.

[HOWMANY]

This looks like an easy fold against a passive player in a live game. Online I'm calling easily. Live I'm folding easily if I'm playing well/decent. If I'm running bad I probably call just to pour some salt into my own wounds.

[Bill King]

[ QUOTE ]
I make the call here.
14bb....
Also--how do you play the river if he checks?

[/ QUOTE ]

check through for sure.

what else is he gonna call with? K high?

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
i call this, the pot is huge.

[/ QUOTE ]
Its not huge enough, live 20/40 pots get rather big. A Fold is fine, hero has to be good 7% of the time or greater for a call to be +EV but I think this is a good example when its pretty obvious the Hero is crushed.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[honker]

If I had to guess, I would say and SB was holding Ace suited with spades. Probably so concentrated on Machine Gun that it was missed. Tough to fold, but that is the way it reads to me.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i call this, the pot is huge.

[/ QUOTE ]
Its not huge enough, live 20/40 pots get rather big. A Fold is fine, hero has to be good 7% of the time or greater for a call to be +EV but I think this is a good example when its pretty obvious the Hero is crushed.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, what TT says. Not enough of an overlay. Inexperienced passive SB has an Ace or a 3 here like always.

[Hass]

A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]? I was thinking A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]X [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] when he bet out on the river.