football Football FOOTBALL!

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
Just unload on Philly and go with your gut, that should work!

[/ QUOTE ]

Ain't even like that... but today it worked. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
baseball may be what makes YOU money man.... that's cool

[/ QUOTE ]

Well yeah, that's exactly what I said in the original post. I was talking about me.

[ QUOTE ]
realize others make money on other +EV situations you havent bothered to put time into

[/ QUOTE ]

I do realize that. I also realize the the majority of people are -ev and that the most popular of sports betting forms (NFL football) is probably the most -ev of them all which I find strange so I questioned it's popularity.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
(NFL football) is probably the most -ev of them all which I find strange so I questioned it's popularity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea.. this part just made no sense to me

It's the largest American sport (without question)... so you question its popularity?

It shouldnt surprise you that football is the most wagered upon, AND mostly public/-EV sport... the two go hand in hand...

g/l with your baseball i wont derail any more of your baseball threads, may even bet your picks [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[calmB4storm]

It seems to me that this thread is just begging for a poker analogy:

Betting baseball is like playing SNGs, while betting football is like playing cash games. The former require much more quantitative analysis, and often there is a cut and dry "right" way to play. The latter depend much more on qualitative analysis, such as trying to get inside the heads of the betting public, opposing teams, etc. Generally it is harder to determine a definite "right" way to play, since there are usually many more variables involved.

Personally, I cannot play cash games for the life of me, so I stick to the SNGs. I'm willing to admit that...my mentality is just not suited for cash games. In the same way, mrbaseball is admitting the same thing with regards to sports betting. Additionally, I think, he's trying to let people know that, just like him, they may be suited more toward betting different sports besides football as well.

[bills217]

mrbaseball,

You should check out Daliman's Wong teasers thread. It's a more mathematical, probabilistic approach to betting the NFL that might be more your style. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Also, POST MORE BASEBALL PICKS!!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[iggymcfly]

The only sport I bet somewhat seriously besides college football is college basketball. I was wondering, since you analyze things from a statistical perspective, and you like home dogs, do you have any data on home dogs covering the first half line?

Just through observational analysis, it seems to me like home teams in general, and especially home dogs of less than 12 points or so tend to play a lot better in the first half. This is a phenomenon that I've noticed somewhat in college football as well, but I think it holds true much easier in college basketball.

The books almost never adjust to this more than a point, so I'd love to see some hard data on the subject, rather than just my own guesses that I've gone by in the past. Usually, unless there's a team-specific trend that says otherwise, I'll avoid betting game lines on slight home dogs just because the 1st half-lines tend to be more profitable.