Standard Deviation

[WilliamLP]

One other interesting result from pure math is that if you multiply a number of trials by n, you divide the standard deviation by the square root of n.

So as an approximation, let's say your SD is 15BB over 100 hands, and your mean is +3BB/100 hands.

Then over 10,000 hands, your SD would be 15 / (square root of 100) or 1.5.

So the final results after 10,000 hands could look like:
<0BB with 2.3% chance
0-1.5BB with 12.6% chance
1.5-3BB with 34.2% chance
3-4.5BB with 34.2% chance
4.5-6BB with 12.6% chance
>6BB with 2.3% chance

So math supports the idea that your results over 10,000 hands could very realistically be all over the map.

[Smurph64]

FYI, currently my standard deviation is 17.46 bb/100 and I am 99% sure I don't suck.

Don't judge your standard deviation as a way of judging how good and bad you are but more of an indication of how you play.

If you play very tight 12/6 to 16/6 for example and your standard deviation is up where mine is, then you are probably doing something wrong.

Its a big picture thing not a oh my god, I have freckles over 60% of my body I suck thing.

[BTR_Rounder]

My SD at .25/.50 is 20.5, but I'm also known to push razor thin margins.

[HighSteaks]

[ QUOTE ]
What is your normal session like? Is it 100 hands 1 tabling or 1000 hands 4 tabling? Are you running hot or cold? Granted, I'm not a math wonk, but 10k hands isn't anywhere near the long run. I still hold that the best way to know if you are a winning player is if you are, you know, winning.

[/ QUOTE ]


[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Yeah, I'm from the money in the bank school too - I just wondered if the figure would then suggest you are a leaks style player - perhaps not by the sound of it. Thanks for all of your answers [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is your normal session like? Is it 100 hands 1 tabling or 1000 hands 4 tabling? Are you running hot or cold? Granted, I'm not a math wonk, but 10k hands isn't anywhere near the long run. I still hold that the best way to know if you are a winning player is if you are, you know, winning.

[/ QUOTE ]


[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Yeah, I'm from the money in the bank school too - I just wondered if the figure would then suggest you are a leaks style player - perhaps not by the sound of it. Thanks for all of your answers [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This link at least helped me grasp the meaning of Standard Deviation

[kerowo]

My problem with using these kinds of stats is that they don't really mean anything. Because you have a win rate of such and such and a standard deviation of so and so isn't going to stop you from losing half your buy in for the next 4 or 5 or n buy-ins. You may know how unlikely it was, but the chance of something happening that already happened is always 100%. I guess it is sort of like religion, if you need it fine if you don't fine.