NFL Week 1 overlays

rjp · #1 09-08-2006, 01:09 PM

Season is very early, and the only overlay I've been able to find is Buffalo +10.5 at -120. Unless the Patriots win this game almost 100% of the time then a decent overlay exists with the Bills.

Assani Fisher · #2 09-08-2006, 05:37 PM

Not sure I understand what you're saying here.

rjp · #3 09-08-2006, 09:20 PM

What I'm saying is that there is an overlay with the Bills +10.5 at -120 odds as, at best, I figure the Patriots win 90% of the time. What I'm saying is that a positive expectation lies with Buffalo at that price, unless you figure the Patriots win by closer to 100% of the time.

ren hoek · #4 09-09-2006, 01:44 AM

stop making up nomenclature like "overlay." this isnt a poker tournament. if you mean to say that you should bet on the bills, say the line on the bills is soft, or say that you think people should bet on the bills, or just bills +10.5 = $$$$.

Daliman · #5 09-09-2006, 04:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What I'm saying is that there is an overlay with the Bills +10.5 at -120 odds as, at best, I figure the Patriots win 90% of the time. What I'm saying is that a positive expectation lies with Buffalo at that price, unless you figure the Patriots win by closer to 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you figure they win 90% of the time, then bet them at -550 most anywhere and make 45% on your $$$$ [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

rjp · #6 09-09-2006, 11:13 AM

sorry if you don't like my terminology, an overlay isn't specific to poker.

I'm saying that at worst I figure the Bills lose 90% of the time, I actually figure it's less than that, i'm just trying to show that even if my odds are off that there is still good value with the bills.

Assani Fisher · #7 09-09-2006, 12:46 PM

Sorry, I'm an idiot and am still confused. Are you simply saying that you like the Bills +10.5 in this game? Where does this "Patriots win no more than 90% of the time" talk fit into anything?

Homer · #8 09-09-2006, 12:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
stop making up nomenclature like "overlay." this isnt a poker tournament. if you mean to say that you should bet on the bills, say the line on the bills is soft, or say that you think people should bet on the bills, or just bills +10.5 = $$$$.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop being so arrogant. You knew exactly what he meant.

BogusPomp · #9 09-09-2006, 01:13 PM

p.108 "Gambling For A Living" by Sklansky and Malmuth

"All good bets are overlays. In order to have the best of it on any bet, that bet must be an overlay.... any gambling bet has to be an overlay if it is to have a positive expectation."

FWIW, I like the Bills +10.5 @-120 as well.

BogusPomp · #10 09-09-2006, 01:28 PM

i believe what he is trying to say, and correct me if i'm wrong..

Even if we KNEW the Pats would win this game, they would win by more than 10pts <45% (100/220)of the time.
When you then factor in the possibility Buffalo could win this game, straight-up, this bet has a clear +EV.