Running bad thing (long)

[Peter_rus]

As the one who like anyone else occasionally running extremely bad i would like to execute a debate on this topic. I had about 300BB downstreak lately so this is "hot" theme for me.

I'd post my thoughts and would like to see your opinions.

Conditions:

You're decent winner after say 200K hands at this limit.
These 200K you were played with mixed but static in your head strategy according to your reads on your opponents.

(Against player1 you bet this river, - against player2 you wouldn't etc...)

You play against the same people very often (obviously apply to high limit mostly)

Now after some amount hands you run pretty bad. Let's translate what this means for you in details:

- people muck when you have good hands/monster
- people fight back right in hands, where you can't proceed and forced to fold
- people catch miracle cards when you have tough hand
- you catch good flops and/or PF hands lesser then your fair share.
- your good draws missed too frequently.
- your bluffs missed as well or face re-bluff/value-raise.

Now let's see how this appear to your opponents:

- people muck when you have good hands/monster

--- people still think that they fold to you fair amount of time.

- people fight back right in hands, where you can't proceed and forced to fold

--- people still think that they fight back with right cards against you.


- people catch miracle cards when you have tough hand

--- they see they were gotten lucky and quickly forget it, cause it's just their fair share of suckouts.

- you catch good flops and/or PF hands lesser then your fair share.

--- people just see you folding too much and claim you as a weak

- your good draws missed too frequently.
---people just see you folding _river_ too much and claim you believe in river bets too much.

-- your bluffs missed as well or face re-bluff/value-raise.
--- people see that you believe in their rases too much. Occasionally they see your bluffs on a river and claim you as a frequent bluffer.

How would they normally adapt:

-Bluff more
-Call down with weak to medium hands more.

How you shoul re-adapt:

-Bluff less
-Value-betting more
-Play your weak to medium hands passively (or just fold them PF which myself actually don't like at all - my PF-strategy is constant and i never change it at any circumstances regardless i'm running bad or good).

Some major problems with your re-adaptation been running bad

1. Some people really don't care how you're running and do not change their strategy against your profile a tiny bit. You see them raising and raising but when you call down - you're always lost, cause they just play their cards (and their cards run hot) and you, how they already used to understand your style before this running bad thing. If you change your strategy adjusting it for your "weak image" it will be losing strategy against them.

2. Some people spot your 'visible' weakness and start to adjust. You don't know who is able to do that and who isn't. Stats (in internet) if you see them no longer have a value for you against a people who adapt, as people play against you other style that they used to play against you before.

Online, i believe, 1)>2) even in high limits, so if you wouldn't change your strategy a tiny bit you'll get more in comparison if you correctly adapt against 2)

To be honest - incorrect adjusting while running hot has the same controversal troubles as running bad

You can easily overestimate opponents folding equity, cause you think that everyone see how you're cool, while your opponents just running dry with their cards.

Most players find easier situation when they running hot just because they feel better during play. Lost this small pot with bluff, catch runner on a river and successfully check-raise, getting payout from a good hand, make decent fold of a good hand, when opponent has better etc... While if they adapt correctly to their "running hot" they would win even more than they did.

To get the most from situation you should spot the people who adapt to any of new circumstances (myself i see people on tilt (people who adapts against me incorrectly when running bad trying re-bluffing, calling too much etc..), but i also know some players that don't change their style regardless of how they running, so my strategy against them stay constant. The same thing with running hot-guys, some after good like start to try to win every pot with very "smart" bluffs and get most value from hands that against me basically has no value at all.

Here is some keys i used to find people who try to adapt to me online when i running bad to distinct them from people who not change their style:

1. If players seems to play the same style against any opponent except you, - it's quite unlikely he paying attention to how you're running. So you shouldn't change your style against him.

2. If the player start to show you some strange betting patterns you didn't see much from him before - be sure he starts to bluff more against you.

3. Opponents start to play against you faster/slower (clicks) than he usually do.

4. Do not fail to thinking that if player attacks you in a similar situations (and he usually play them this way) 3-4 times in a row - he is trying to take most from exactly you - this could easily (very easily) be hot run of cards.
Majority of mistakes comes from this - we start to re-adapt when opponent didn't change anything in his game. I'd start to adapt if he changed the frequency after 6-7 times. Even if he didn't change his strategy - i would fail to wrong thinking very rare.

Anyway - when you running very bad or very hot - it's harder to get the maximum EV from this situation compared to when you running normal, cause stats of some players changed instantly (and PT can't catch this) and it takes time to find the players who really start taking shots/start to made too many folds against you.

So it's easier to change a table or take a break quitting the complicated analysis of players. Though personaly i never did this and plan to never do until i play underbankrolled probably (what i also do not plan to do), cause i like to analyze [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Surf]

Awesome post, Peter. There's alot to think about in there.

Surf

[James282]

Peter - what you have written here is very very good. Keep in mind, however, that a lot of opponents are adjusting their game against you because the subconsciously realize what's going on. It's not so much that they are like WOW PETER IS RUNNING BAD, ATTACK! It's that the little voice in their head that makes them choose what to do based on all the information that they have collected to that point shifts a little bit for reasons that they can not explain. Their play is adjusted accordingly.


I do wonder to what extent their play does adjust, but I am sure that it does, especially in that 1/2 game on party that definitely is a small player pool.
-James

[The Bryce]

The thing with this whole business of trying to solve the problem of "running bad", is that by the time you've solved the problem it's already solved itself.

The biggest thing is still the obvious thing: when you're running bad, don't play worse. This doesn't mean raging monkey tilt, that's just stupid, but I think a lot of people take a bit of a subconcious hit when they can "do no right" and get afraid to stick their neck out on good, but close, plays. Basically, they're afraid to run worse. It's hard to keep your opponents wary and play tough when things aren't going your way.

I also think that the whole "people adjusting to you losing a bunch of hands" thing is a bit overstated. Obviously there's some duality where the guy who won a bunch of hands isn't nearly as afraid to jam chips, take shots, and swing hard in good, but speculative spots when he's already up 80 bets on the day, but this probably has more to do with how he plays against everyone more than just you.

You'd better believe, though, that if you start playing tilty or if your play starts to deteriorate, attentive players are going to come after you like wolves after bloody meat.

[geormiet]

When you run bad and your opponents notice, they tend to increase aggressiveness and trickiness.

Increasing tightness/straightforwardness is basically the counter to overaggressiveness/overtrickiness (to a certain extend. As an extreme example, how do you play against someone who bets/raises every single action: very straightforwardly). Which is pretty much the opposite of what most players do when they run bad.

[mike l.]

great post but this is worrisome:

"my PF-strategy is constant and i never change it at any circumstances regardless i'm running bad or good"

for me limit hold em is a very situational game. in some spots an easy fold is an easy raise and vice versa, very player dependent, preflop included. the more i alter my play to perfectly fit a good read, the more money i make.

[AffleckKGB]

[ QUOTE ]
great post but this is worrisome:

"my PF-strategy is constant and i never change it at any circumstances regardless i'm running bad or good"

for me limit hold em is a very situational game. in some spots an easy fold is an easy raise and vice versa, very player dependent, preflop included. the more i alter my play to perfectly fit a good read, the more money i make.


[/ QUOTE ]

Reread Peter's quote and you might be less worried.

[DpR]

Will someone (Barron?) please collect a crap load of results data from a bunch of players and run a time series to check for auto-correlation. Would be interesting to see if any exists, and perhaps put to bed (or not) some of these concepts.

(I'm too old to do that crap anymore)

[mike l.]

"my PF-strategy is constant"

i understand how his sentence can be read two ways, and i recognize teh language barrier but just the above phrase is still something that doesnt sit right with me.

[Peter_rus]

Hi, Mike. I do this for several reasons:

1. People online at high limits tend to adapt to your PF a lot more quickly than your postflop play. So if you start to change your strategy it at first change your visible stats. So any experiments this stuff can force you to find yourself in situation when the most players quickly adapts and you find yourself actually in a whole new game you're probably do not able currently to play very well.

2. Tilt-blocking. When you run extremely well or extremely loose your basic natural desire is loosing up, fixed PF-base force you not to make this regardless you're running bad,good or ...drunk [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. (At least for me)

3. Of course i do change slowly my PF-basic strategy, but not during one session. Of course my strategy vary against each kind of opponents (this is mostly apply to 3-bet/cap them, but not - raise first in) but it doesn't mean it isn't static in my head.

4. Natural luck with PF 2 cards vary your visible PF-style from time to time in a short term. This can provoke instant quite predictable short changes in adaptive opponent's game, but never provoke to change their overall strategy against you for a long time.


So if i find myself in situation, when i lost 3 pots in a row and have K8o on a button i would still raise this sh_it to find out blinds folded probably because they think that once in a while i must catch good cards. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]