50/100 87s

[oreopimp]

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i think i like the check if you're intending to call a CO bet and raise a button bet. but maybe i'm crazy.

edit: depends on the button though, if he's not calling with an overpair its dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

pete I dont think you're crazy. just depends on how the tag plays 99-JJ on the turn.

[PokerBob]

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Why do we want the cutoff to get lost? Doing that just gets us headsup against the guy who is probably ahead of us who plans on showing down his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

is he really calling us down with UI overs here?

[steveyz]

The board is pretty draw heavy and it's unlikely you are check raising because you hit a pair so I think overcards should call down unless most of the probable draws hit the turn/river.

[cartman]

I probably donk the turn, but the way you played it I check and call the river regardless of who bets. Given the action so far I think it is very likely that the river card beat me with an outside possibility that it made a chopping straight.

[Boris]

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The way it played out you should bet the river, and I don't think this is close.

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Why? It looks pretty close to me. A reasonable hand distribution for the CO might be 77 - 10%, flush 83%, 99-JJ - 5% two pairs - 1%, set 1%. If the CO has a flush you have to assume it is at least jack high. Even if he only raises with an A or K high flush (and honestly 95% of players would raise with any flush here.), the hero is still better off to check call. We would have to come with a scenario where the CO and Button would raise less than 40% (the 40% number comes from HPFAP I believe) of the time on the river. As for the times the hero misses a bet by having both players check behind with hands that would have called, I just don't see that many hands that are possible. I think most players in the CO position would bet some two pair hands and most set and straight hands.

There is also a small but reasonable chance the button has AKs or AQs. In this case though the hero could probably bet/fold if the CO called the hero's river bet. Also, if hero checks then there is a reasonable chance the CO would bet 77.

[moneyshot]

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I would muck preflop and bet this river every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Bill King]

[ QUOTE ]
i think i like the check if you're intending to call a CO bet and raise a button bet. but maybe i'm crazy.

edit: depends on the button though, if he's not calling with an overpair its dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly what i was thinking.

this is definitly a good spot to c/r the button but does the button fire this river after you c/r the turn?

[siegfriedandroy]

[ QUOTE ]
i think i like the check if you're intending to call a CO bet and raise a button bet. but maybe i'm crazy.

edit: depends on the button though, if he's not calling with an overpair its dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think button would have to be pretty bad to bet/call this river.

[siegfriedandroy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think i like the check if you're intending to call a CO bet and raise a button bet. but maybe i'm crazy.

edit: depends on the button though, if he's not calling with an overpair its dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

pete I dont think you're crazy. just depends on how the tag plays 99-JJ on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

please elaborate, oreo... also you still playing on abs!?

[siegfriedandroy]

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Why do we want the cutoff to get lost? Doing that just gets us headsup against the guy who is DEFINITELY ahead of us who plans on showing down his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]