AL/NL Cy Young Futures and a Howard Longshot

[Card08]

A book that I frequent has up what I found to be a couple possible good bets on these races.

They still had Johan Santana at 1-1 to win the Cy even though he is virtually leading the AL Pitching Triple Crown (after Liriano got hurt, and I think sportswriters look at these 3 stats more than anything else) Not making the playoffs could hurt him a bit, but the only playoff contenders with an outside shot seem to be Wang, Mussina, Rivera, and Verlander. Verlander may have an outside shot, currently at 9-2, while the 3 Yankees range from 5-1 with Wang 4-1 on Riv and 10-1 on Moose.

The NL race is a little more interesting, but I have to like Carpenter at 2-1. He may only have 13 wins at the moment, but I feel this will come up. He just secured a near 1/5 run lead in the ERA (2.97) race over Webb (3.14) and a shellacked Johnson. Webb (5-2), though with 14 wins, has faded and watched his ERA climb half a run in his last 10 starts.

I think Carp is a lock if he stays sharp and hits 15-16 wins. Brad Penny (7-2) has 15 W, likely pretty to the voters, but his current 4.21 ERA should keep him out of it. No one else comes in at better than 5-1 (Wagner). Carp's division title in a pitching staff that has otherwise featured Ponson, Mulder, and Jeff Weaver looks to give him the edge over Webb .

I also took a flyer on a Ryan Howard MVP at 5-2 (Pujols with a 4-5 up right now.)

So, where's the smart money?

[Thremp]

I think Carpenter and Santana are almost the lock of the week or maybe the shoe in of the week.

I like Ryan Ho. odds. Dude has been cranking it on a non-playoff team and you're getting decent odds. Probably can find better than +250 though.

[Card08]

Anyone know any other books that are posting futures bets on this? I checked the 4 or 5 books I normally use and could only find it on Sportsbook.com.

[crockpot]

i wouldn't call santana a lock, but he is pretty close. for those who are into arbing, pinny (which, by the way, is the other book carrying these lines, although they disappear after games start) has the field (everyone but santana) at around +400. he is the only guy worth betting in the AL, whether arbing or for value.

in the NL, carpenter probably has value at 2-1, but he is NOT the lock everyone is making him out to be. just look at the nl cy young voting for the last couple of years for proof that being the clear best pitcher in the league is meaningless if you don't have the win total. yes, i know he is only two wins behind the leader and one win behind the pack, but that number is likely to increase before the end of the year.

last year carpenter melted down in september. two years ago he got hurt near the end of the year. i normally don't pay too much attention to these things, but you have to make an exception for a guy who has a long history of injuries and fatigue, hit the DL earlier this year, and set a career high in innings by a long shot last year.

if there's one guy i want to bet on sportsbook, it's zambrano, assuming he is cleared to make his next start. for some reason sportsbook deals crazy lines on injured players. papi was 20-1 to win mvp on monday. after returning, he dropped to 1-1. didn't everyone and his mother hear that he was coming back that day?

howard is probably +ev at 5-2, but it's hard for me to say exactly how much.

[pat1999]

i love johan 1-1 odds. i took it myself.

right now it looks like a lock, he should finsish the season with starts against oak, cle, bal, and either kc or cws depending on the playoff picture. he has pretty much dominated these teams except for KC surprisingly. he is traditionally and exceptional 2nd half pitcher and he is living up to that right now. he leads the AL in wins, k's, era, whip. if the twins make playoffs its gaurenteed, if not then it will be close between him and verlander but i think johan wins anyway.

[Thremp]

I think Verlander would have to pitch multiple no hitters to end the year to take this award from Johan assuming he pitches at his avgs. (which would actually be a regression from his past 2 months). He's just that far ahead of everyone it seems.

I think the Cubs will hang C-Zam out there if he's feeling alright. And I think Zambrano will wanna go out to pitch since he's got a decent shot at the Cy Young. Each of these guys has what... 4 starts left?

[BobJoeJim]

So Johan is 1-1 somewhere? Would someone care to share what site that's available at?

[pat1999]

He is 1-1 on wallstreet.com where I play. I actually just increased my position after looking at the stats again. I can't see him not winning it.

[chalk7]

we must have pounded sportsbook too hard. they moved it to 1-4. only $300 max though.

[pat1999]

lol, im glad i got in at 1-1