Win Rates

[Hair_of_the_Dog]

What win rate do you have?

Me, I'm a big loser, but I'm trying to change that. I play mainly 3/6 @ B&Ms. They are sometimes very crazy with 4-5 maniacs, multiple capped streets with 5+ people in the pot. To be obvious there is a lot of sucking out. Which is a little anoying, but when I hit my draws it is very nice. Other times there are a few LAGs and few rocks and/or LPs. Sedomly a TAG or 2 show up.

I am wonder what kind of win rate would be a reasonable goal. I only really want a bench mark to measure my progress by.

Thanks!

[Allday Everyday]

As a general rule, when you reach 3/6 limit online, if you can make 2 big bets every 100 hands, you are a good player. If you can make more than that, you are an excellent player.

If they are consistently playing with 'maniacs', a good player could probably make much more than 2BB/100. Though, the fluctuations and variance will probably be greater in such games.

[Webster]

With the right table conditions (flop% over 35%) an excellent player can make more then 3BB/100. I really think that the 2BB/100 is something from the old days (at least in limit).

The looser the tables the higher BB/100.

On those type of tables if you are seeing a game with 5 players in every flop on average 4 and 5 BB/100 hands (or 1.5/hour B&M) is certainly doable (although many people will disagree).

Look at it this way disaggreerers. Playing microlimits with 50% flops 6BB/100 is not out of the question. THUS, if you are playing with 50% flops at higher limits, isn't it the same situation?

[Allday Everyday]

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I really think that the 2BB/100 is something from the old days (at least in limit).

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Which old days do you mean? 30 years ago? Or 3 years ago? I wasn't there for either of these...I understood that the SS limit games are more difficult to beat now than ever before. In todays game half the people at the table are 'half-decent' players? In today's game almost everybody at the table has at least some poker education? It depends on the table I guess, but I mean in gereral...I suppose I'm talking more about internet games.

[ QUOTE ]
On those type of tables if you are seeing a game with 5 players in every flop on average 4 and 5 BB/100 hands (or 1.5/hour B&M) is certainly doable (although many people will disagree).

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I dont think it'd be enough for your opponents to be loose preflop to win this many big bets. I think they'd also have to make many, many postflop mistakes. Also, it's not usually enough to beat the other players for 5BB/100. You'd usually need to beat them for much, much more. The SS raked pot really makes things extremely difficult for you. These winrates would be much easier in a non-raked game. But I suppose an excellent player in an excellent game could have an expected winrate of 5BB/100. However, I think anyone who could make that much in a game would usually move up a limt or two.

[Bob T.]

Allday, the original poster was asking about B@M games. I don't think you've experienced games as loose and passive as 3-6 live games can be. They are probably easier to beat than .50/1.00 games online. I think that 1.5 BB/ hour is very achievable, with just a little talent. If you are beating the game for more than that, its time to move up to the next level which really limits the talent pool at the low limit levels. At the same time, 1.5BB/hour is $9/hour, and with a little work it is very possible to make a lot more online, because you get more hands per hour, and can also multitable, and this also takes more talent out of the talent pool at the live low limit levels.

[AlienBoy]

I'll venture that 2BB/Hour is doable at 4/8 in a B&M if you are careful about table selection and play very agressively.

With very aggressive play (raising nearly every time you enter a hand PF if it is not already raised, and re-raising all good holdings) you build big pots pre-flop, and bigger pots have a reduced rake impact. With very aggressive play, you will still get 5 or 6 players to see a flop, especially if you are behind them and they're already in.

At 4/8 in Los Angeles, there is a $3 rake, $1 Jackpot rake, and then your $1 tip - that's $5 a pot - or put another way, that's $150 an hour that is *leaving the table*.

If you can double the size of every pot you are in, you half the effect of the rake for the hands you are participating in.

If you participate in 8 hands an hour, the total rake for those hands is 5BB. Assuming that you win 20% of the hands you play, that's 1BB per hour you improve your winnings just by making all pots you are involved in double sized.

...Of course, your variance increases too...

AB

[gobbledygeek]

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What win rate do you have?

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In my first 95 hours at 2/4 B&M I'm a horrendous -2.3 BB/hour (what is that, about -7 BB/100hands or so?) despite good conditions (loose 5/6+ players per flop and fairly passive). I guess the rake, jackpot and tip cut into things but still pretty damn ugly. I'm a bad poker player.

GcluelessnoobG

[SeaEagle]

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In my first 95 hours at 2/4 B&M I'm a horrendous -2.3 BB/hour

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95 hours is what? 3000 hands? Not enough to overcome variance (although -225BB probably means you could improve).

This is a good lead-in to the comment I wanted to make. You really have to be careful when asking "how much should I be making" because variance is such a bitch. With a capital B. It takes 6-figure hands before you can know your win rate with any confidence and, even then, there'll be external factors such as your changing skill and different playing environments that muddy your win rate.

Learn to recognize when your quality of play is better than your opponents and use that as a guide to how much you should be earning. Keep general track of how many mistakes your opponents make. In my experience, you should see an obvious mistake every 5 hands or so. If you're seeing less than that, your skill level may not be high enough to play at your current table.

[ThrillFox]

To repeat what is often said here (and that I've had to force myself to listen to several time) don't foucs on win rate, worry about what's wrong with your game. Sometimes (though not likely in the case of beginners), there isn't all that much wrong . . . and in the short term you lose.

I'm close to 700 hours at B&M 2/4 with an overall winrate of about 1.3BB/hr. But, I had a strech of 66 hours where I lost $227 and another where I was -$14 for 89 hours and another where I made about $1/hr for 130 hours.
The other sessions represent streaks where I averaged about +$10/hr. That's the way the game goes.