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#1
09-03-2006, 07:14 AM
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AA hand, turn play
40-80 full ring game , BB is loose passive, CO is too loose preflop but aggresive postflop.
I have red AA UTG+1 UTG folds, I raise UTG+1, CO cold calls, folded to BB who calls. Flop: AcTs8h BB checks, I bet, CO call, BB call Turn: Qs BB checks, I bet, CO call, BB raises Should I raise or call? Is this a close decision? 
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#5
09-03-2006, 05:43 PM
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Re: AA hand, turn play
Yeah i REALLY don't want to give free/cheap cards to CO here, but at the same time its WAY more likely for BB to have a straight here then a set. I'm not sure if he'd even check/raise with two pair here though.
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#6
09-04-2006, 08:27 PM
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Re: AA hand, turn play
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a spot that even if you have the 2nd best hand a 3 bet is best. You want to protect your hand from a straight card that the CO could have w/ a pair. [/ QUOTE ] Wow. How wrong is this? Let me count the ways. - If you have the 2nd best hand, it does you no good to drive out a gutshot, since a rivered straight will not make you the best hand anyways, it only changes who you lose to. - You do not want pair + gutshot hands to fold anyways, even if you were best. He's getting 10:1 here on an 11:1 shot (and may in fact be drawing for 1/2 the pot). This call might be marginally profitable if he knew your hole cards, but you are totally ignoring that there are many rivers that will crush him. His 2 outs to trips, for example, will ensure he takes it right in the pooper for at least 2 bets, maybe 3. His 2 pair outs also ensure he'll pay off a bet on the river, so he has 5 outs to lose more money vs 4 outs at 10:1 to win the pot. A losing call which you should be quite happy to trap him for given that you are already concerned about being behind. - Many players are loose enough to call 2 cold with a pair + straight draw here. which means raising might actually be right, but not to try to fold him, instead, to try to get him to call 2 instead of 1. Player knowledge would be useful here. So... let's find the right answer. Some simple hand reading of BB tells us... AQ? It would be odd to both not get a 3-bet pf and not get a raise on the flop when he has the 3rd guy trapped. Possible, but not likely. AT? Maybe, but again, surprising not to see that flop raise. 88? Same thing. QT? Now we're talking. That's solidly in there. And of course KJ is right there. So we have 16 totally reasonable KJ combos where we definitely absolutely want to call. 9 QT combos where we are ahead and can call profitably to get the overcall but prefer to raise to max value on the freeroll that the 3rd guy will call 2 cold. 9 strongly discounted AQ / TT / 88 leave me feeling that we are underdogs to have the best hand here, probably just under 50/50. Since we'll surely be 3-bet by the nuts and won't be able to fold the river unimproved, raising costs us 2 BB when behind but gains 1 when ahead. Given the hand range probabilities, it's easy to see we just call, right? Well, not so fast. You see, raising doesn't really cost us 2 BB, because we have a pretty decent draw going here. Let's assume the 3rd guy holds 1 of our full house outs. That leaves us with 9 outs against a made straight, or about 4:1 against. With 20% equity in the pot, we only actually lose 60%, or 1.2BB, of the money we put into the pot when we find ourselves 3-bet by the nut straight. That means we are risking 1.2BB to try to win an extra 1 BB when we 3-bet. So the answer is that it's pretty close and depends highly on the 3rd guy. If we think he'll fold a pair + straight draw facing 2 cold, then we should call. If we think he's a loose calling station who would never fold such a hand, then we should raise. Now we're looking at getting an extra 3 BB (a little less as 3rd guy may draw out) by raising and are only risking the same 1.2 BB. We're clearly ahead often enough to justify the raise if this is the case. But we don't know that he even has a pair+straight draw of course, so we have to discount that. Personally, I think by default that you'll run into a hand that can call 2 cold often enough to justify the 3-bet and would go that route. However, I think it's close and if we're given the information that the 3rd guy is a tough, tight player, than calling is the play. Like most poker hands, there's a great depth to this hand and I'm probably only scratching the surface, making huge assumptions, etc. But this should get you started. good luck. Eric
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#7
09-04-2006, 08:32 PM
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Re: AA hand, turn play
by the way, an interesting advantage to calling is that it may cause a made straight to overvalue his hand and 3-bet the river when we fill up. Our hand does not appear that strong when we just call the raise, and he may put us on trips and 3-bet us. That leaves us in the enviable position of losing 3 BB when behind while winning 6 when ahead, instead of the likely 4 and 5 if we raise the turn.
That just makes it even closer in my mind. I slightly prefer a 3-bet now against a default (ie calling station) 3rd player, but think I could be wrong and calling might be best. If you know the 3rd player to be reasonable, then calling is definitely best, IMO (see other post for details). -Eric
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#10
09-06-2006, 06:46 PM
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Re: AA hand, turn play
Thank you for the in depth analysis of this hand. Without going into too many calculations on the spot I "felt" like I was beat here by BB, but my greatest concern was that if I was ahead, not to let CO draw to a 4 outer here cheaply to beat me. With that being said I would definately have to do the math here on a hand range of BB check-raising the turn. Also CO is pretty decent postflop, maybe a little bit loose and a little bit too aggresive.
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