Laying off $500 on the Dolphins against the Mansion Bet

[sammyG]

I'm intending on doing this tommorow... does anyone have any suggestions on which site to lay the 500 off on... who has the best spread/odds right now.... and what is this stuff I read about the refer a friend to SIA to get 270????

[ImsaKidd]

Dont do it anymore, cause rothlisbergers injury messes up any future hedges....

[sammyG]

what does hedges mean?

[scorer]

hedge is betting the other side to ensure you get a profit on either side. The line has moved alot since there is an injury. If you bet the other side you could potentially lose both bets. To make this simple, just stick with the bet you have and the worst case scenario is you get your refund and are now even.

[sammyG]

No, I guess I didnt explain myself clearly I havent placed the bet yet I am going to tommorow

[B00T]

It depends when OP placed the original bet. If he bet the game last week at 4,4.5,5, hedging is a waste right now. If he bet the game an hour ago, there is still good value in hedging.

I think KenAA said it, and multiple times. You are better off trying to hedge at halftime and lock in a middle or good value on a bet from last week.

Then again, you have to know what you are doing and the average poker player who knows jack about sports betting wont have this luxary.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
It depends when OP placed the original bet. If he bet the game last week at 4,4.5,5, hedging is a waste right now. If he bet the game an hour ago, there is still good value in hedging.

[/ QUOTE ]
I haven't placed the bet yet. I'm hoping to get a referral and place it ASAP. Is hedging still an option?



[ QUOTE ]
You are better off trying to hedge at halftime and lock in a middle or good value on a bet from last week. Then again, you have to know what you are doing and the average poker player who knows jack about sports betting wont have this luxary.

[/ QUOTE ]
How/where can we learn about how to do this?

[guppy]

There is nothing magic about hedging at halftime.

Suppose I placed my bet just now at PK. I could hedge right now at Pinnacle +1 -106, betting $514.10 to win $485, and be guaranteed a profit of $485, with a longshot at +$1000 if Steelers win by exactly 1.

Instead, suppose I wait until halftime. Maybe the game is tied, and the line is about PK, and I have the same chance to hedge as if I had played Miami PK before the game. Maybe the Steelers are winning by 7. The halftime line might be something like Miami -3, which equates to a full-game line of Miami +4, and now I have a chance to win both ways if Steelers win by 1-3 points, or push if Steelers win by 4. OTOH, perhaps Miami is winning by 7, the HT line is Miami +3, or a full-game line of Miami -4, and I have no hedging possibilities at all.

Making a hedge bet, like buying insurance, gives up some EV for less variation in results. You don't magically create value by playing at halftime, you just have a different set of bets and possible results. If you make a bet at a fair line, you are giving up EV. So if you play Miami PK -110 right now for $524 to win $476, assuming PK is the correct line, you have just paid $24 to lock in a $476 profit instead of keeping a coin flip for $500.

If you make the same bet at halftime when Steelers are winning by 7 on a line of Miami -3 -110, and that is the true line, you are once again paying $24 to eliminate the chance of losing. Your possible results look better, with a minimum profit of $476 and a shot at winning $1476 if Pitt wins by a FG. But that is not because you played at haltime, but because you played at halftime when your first bet was winning. If the Steelers had been losing instead, you would have had no hedging chances, and been holding a bet worth perhaps just $300 in EV instead of $500 before the game.

Your Mansion freeroll right now has a value of $500 (assuming PK is the true line). At haltime, it might still be worth $500, it might be worth $800 or so in EV if Pitt is up by a couple TDs, or it could be worth just $200 or less if Pitt is losing big.

By not hedging at all, you are gambling, saying I would rather take a $500 coin flip than pay $24 in EV.

By saying "I will wait until halftime" you are still gambling, saying I would rather bet $500 that the Steelers will be tied or winning in the first half than pay $24 in EV right now.

BTW, for anyone who does want to let the bet ride and possibly lock in a profit later if they are winning, you can also look at bet exchanges offering real-time game odds, not just halftime betting, especially if you have the current PK line, so your outcome is determined only by who wins the game.

You have a bet that is worth $1000 if Steelers win the game. This is equivalent to 10 contracts on Steelers at WSEX in live betting, so you could sell 10 Steelers contracts (or buy Miami) at any time during the game to lock in a profit (or loss) based on the current score and odds of winning. Tradesports and others will also have this. Of course, you pay EV here, too.

[boscoboy]

[ QUOTE ]
There is nothing magic about hedging at halftime.

Suppose I placed my bet just now at PK. I could hedge right now at Pinnacle +1 -106, betting $514.10 to win $485, and be guaranteed a profit of $485, with a longshot at +$1000 if Steelers win by exactly 1.

Instead, suppose I wait until halftime. Maybe the game is tied, and the line is about PK, and I have the same chance to hedge as if I had played Miami PK before the game. Maybe the Steelers are winning by 7. The halftime line might be something like Miami -3, which equates to a full-game line of Miami +4, and now I have a chance to win both ways if Steelers win by 1-3 points, or push if Steelers win by 4. OTOH, perhaps Miami is winning by 7, the HT line is Miami +3, or a full-game line of Miami -4, and I have no hedging possibilities at all.

Making a hedge bet, like buying insurance, gives up some EV for less variation in results. You don't magically create value by playing at halftime, you just have a different set of bets and possible results. If you make a bet at a fair line, you are giving up EV. So if you play Miami PK -110 right now for $524 to win $476, assuming PK is the correct line, you have just paid $24 to lock in a $476 profit instead of keeping a coin flip for $500.

If you make the same bet at halftime when Steelers are winning by 7 on a line of Miami -3 -110, and that is the true line, you are once again paying $24 to eliminate the chance of losing. Your possible results look better, with a minimum profit of $476 and a shot at winning $1476 if Pitt wins by a FG. But that is not because you played at haltime, but because you played at halftime when your first bet was winning. If the Steelers had been losing instead, you would have had no hedging chances, and been holding a bet worth perhaps just $300 in EV instead of $500 before the game.

Your Mansion freeroll right now has a value of $500 (assuming PK is the true line). At haltime, it might still be worth $500, it might be worth $800 or so in EV if Pitt is up by a couple TDs, or it could be worth just $200 or less if Pitt is losing big.

By not hedging at all, you are gambling, saying I would rather take a $500 coin flip than pay $24 in EV.

By saying "I will wait until halftime" you are still gambling, saying I would rather bet $500 that the Steelers will be tied or winning in the first half than pay $24 in EV right now.

BTW, for anyone who does want to let the bet ride and possibly lock in a profit later if they are winning, you can also look at bet exchanges offering real-time game odds, not just halftime betting, especially if you have the current PK line, so your outcome is determined only by who wins the game.

You have a bet that is worth $1000 if Steelers win the game. This is equivalent to 10 contracts on Steelers at WSEX in live betting, so you could sell 10 Steelers contracts (or buy Miami) at any time during the game to lock in a profit (or loss) based on the current score and odds of winning. Tradesports and others will also have this. Of course, you pay EV here, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

WOW - WOW - all i can say is WOW - this is the most informative post in any mansion thread. i actually feel smarter having read this [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

thank you guppy [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Veg]

im new at sportsbetting and going to need some time to read through that and get all of it but thanks for post

Also, would it be too much to make a small post during half time on what you will be doing with your bet and reason why

I made my bet at Pk for Steelers so my options are open as you said