NBA regular season wins

[JupiterUWG]

Raptors under(i think they are the worst team in the conference) and hawks over

[llabb]

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Bulls, Nuggets, Timberwolves under
Wizards, Jazz, Lakers over


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Wow, Clark not liking his beloved Bulls' chances this year? Just curious, why not, Clark? They won 47 last year, so even with some dropoff, 43.5 sounds like a reasonable line. Doesn't seem like a play either way to me.

I agree on all your other picks except Denver, where I like the Over. Any reasons you want to give for liking the Under?

[the_main]

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raptors over 28.5

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I disagree. This line is just too close. They won 33 games last season, and they are the only team in the east (aside from maybe the celtics) that didn't improve talent wise. They should be worse this year unless Bosh explodes as a superstar.

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As for a lack of improvement, I think you are wrong. The start of the season last year was a mess because Vince Carter and Alston were cancers in the locker room. They came on strong near the ned of the season.
They have added Charlie Villenueva who is going to make a huge impact and likely scoop up rookie of the year honours (mark my words). They also added a SOLID PG from europe in Calderon who I have seen play in europe and during raps preseason. He brings a calming sense to the team and provides some seriously needed floor control. Thier defence is much improved with another draft pick in Joey Graham who has touted as being the most athelitc player in the draft. Lastly they picked up Mike James from the rockets who provides solidness off the bench and serious D.

In addition, Alvin williams is back - The man who led them to the playoffs before hruting his knee. He played yesterday effectively but it's still unknown how long he'll hold up. Throw in chris bosh getting better and I think this OVER bet is a serious lock.

[llabb]

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Throw in chris bosh getting better and I think this OVER bet is a serious lock.

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Main, I can see why you like this line if Bosh explodes again (which I think has a strong shot of happening), but it looks pretty close to me.

Just to take the other side, here are a couple points against them:

(1) Toronto just became the 1st NBA team to ever lose to Tel Aviv Maccabi.

(2) No frontcourt depth. Araujo has been a disaster and is expected to be sent down to the NBDL this year. This means Bosh plays out of position at C. Villanueva has looked good in pre-season, but is still a rookie and will require some time to adjust. He would be a great backup 4/5, and probably ready to start next year, but it's hard to depend on him as a full-time starter for the whole season long.

Also, who plays behind those him and Bosh? Matt Bonner? Loren Woods? Pape Sow? Meh.

(3) Mike James, Mo Pete, and Jalen Rose are all quite mediocre. It will be hard for Bosh to shoulder the load alone. Just ask T-Mac in 03-04 when he "carried" Orlando to a 21 win season.

(4) Like Penguin said, most other teams improved, some drastically. Toronto did not. Yes, Villanueva may be good, but the team lost Donyell Marshall, a very good player. The team also took a big step down in talent from Alston to James, even though they may benefit from losing Alston's volatility.



Anyway, no big deal, just an opinion, but I'm staying away from that line. Anyone have opinions on the 4 lines I did post analysis for above?

[the_main]

1) I watched the Maccabi game. Maccabi was playing like it was their championship. There are some ex-nba'er who want another shot at NBA and were hungry as hell. The raptors are still in pre-season shape.
2)You're absolutely right. But they are not in 'worse' shape then the were last year. In fact, arugeo has improved some from last year as he spent a lot of the summer playing for the brazilian national team.
3) James is a solid NBA vet who puts up consitent numbers all season. And Jalen rose is a very potent offensive threat, he is just a pylon on defence.

I just see that Toronto has toughened thier D up significantly and added more boards with graham and charlie v... They have lost marshall yes, and the total points will suffer some. But I think charlie can pick up that offensive slack.

So really what I'm trying to say is that they will be a better team next year. They have added defence and rebounds and stability (at PG). These are things that win games late. (Did you know toronto lost the most games of any team last year by a margin of 3 or smaller?)

OVER - I got this one [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

edit:
If you want I can send you a link of thier last pre-season game - Charlie V hitting 3 clutch freethrows with 1second left in regulation to send it to OT... clutch! You'd also be surpruised with how comfortable Calderon is and how well he plays.

[Clarkmeister]

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Bulls, Nuggets, Timberwolves under
Wizards, Jazz, Lakers over


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Wow, Clark not liking his beloved Bulls' chances this year? Just curious, why not, Clark? They won 47 last year, so even with some dropoff, 43.5 sounds like a reasonable line. Doesn't seem like a play either way to me.

I agree on all your other picks except Denver, where I like the Over. Any reasons you want to give for liking the Under?

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The East improved a lot this offseason, the Bulls will struggle to find offense with Curry gone, and I think teams will have them scouted will this year. I don't think Gordon will get any better, Duhon is Duhon. The team is all about Kirk and Deng. I expect them to regress.

Denver: 49.5 is a REAL lofty number for a team with IMO a vastly overrated head coach (despite their finish last year), significant question marks at both guard spots (Andre was a serious malcontent last year and they have no SG), injury questions down low and uncertainty regarding how good Melo really is. That's a lot of issues for a team projected to do 50 wins in the brutally deep Western Conference.

[smbruin22]

wow, raptors fans everywhere on this forum. i thought i was on realgm.com for a second. can we all agree that araujo sucks??

if you can get 28.5 on raptors, then i think you're starting to look at an OVER.... but i get concerned that our offense will be off this year and our defense won't be that much better (still have JR and bonner)...

i like most of the picks on here... one thing to keep in mind is that there are now alot of decent teams in the east so they will be battling it out. i think Miami is a huge UNDER (almost a misprint on the 57.5 - ???? - games).

[llabb]

Main, I can see what you're saying, because the Toronto line is pretty low. Your points are all fine, except I agree with smchant that Araujo does suck. Watch him get shipped to the D-League during the year. Charlie V will make up for it, though, you're right, he's doing pretty well.


Smchant, the Miami line is solid. I personally think they'll blow up at some point this year, but it's tough to take the under at 57.5 when Miami won 59 last year. They did get better purely talent-wise (although I don't think it'll work out together), and top teams can definitely get 60+ wins in the NBA.

[llabb]

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The East improved a lot this offseason, the Bulls will struggle to find offense with Curry gone, and I think teams will have them scouted will this year. I don't think Gordon will get any better, Duhon is Duhon. The team is all about Kirk and Deng. I expect them to regress.

Denver: 49.5 is a REAL lofty number for a team with IMO a vastly overrated head coach (despite their finish last year), significant question marks at both guard spots (Andre was a serious malcontent last year and they have no SG), injury questions down low and uncertainty regarding how good Melo really is. That's a lot of issues for a team projected to do 50 wins in the brutally deep Western Conference.

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Good explanation for the Bulls, Clark. Sounds reasonable to me, especially with Gordon having trouble and going back to the bench. I can also see your points on Denver.

Can you (or anyone else) give me some input with explanation on the NY Under 40.5 and Washington Over 39.5 plays? Those are the ones I like most. Orlando Over 33.5 also, if anyone has an opinion on them.

[roundmann]

Over on the Wizards sticks out like a giraffe in a sheepherd. Tap out.