River Bet:Check ratio request

[montauk]

Hi all,

I'm trying to figure out if I have a leak in my game, that is, not betting the river for value with marginal hands such as top pair (TPTK inc.) I play at micro stakes and am an overall winner with this hand, and its surprising how many times you're ahead (having played at slightly higher levels i rarely bet TPTK for value, as people wouldnt showdown with as weaker holdings than at microlevels)

anyway, my question is for people with PO or PT who play at micro levels, when you count your overall checked on river compared to your bet on river, is it about twice as many times? and would this stat even be valid to infer anything from it?

thanks.

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
when you count your overall checked on river compared to your bet on river, is it about twice as many times?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is essentially the same information as given by the aggression factor calculated by PT in the General Info->More Detail window. Aggression factor is (raise%+bet%)/call%.

If you are checking (edit: and calling) 2x as often as you bet or raise, then your aggression factor is 0.5 and that seems very low for limit HE, so I'm guessing you are playing NL? Even then it seems low, but I'm not much of a NL player, so I'll let others judge.

[VBCurtis]

I am likely leaky on the other side of ideal-- I bet too much, and pay off raises on the river too often. My agg factors are 2.1, 2.3, 1.8.

Full ring 50-1 or lower:
River Raise 7% Bet 29% Call 19% Check 30% Fold 14%.

2500 actions for this sample, 16K hands.

If you're checking behind a ton with position, it's a leak. If you're betting 2nd or 3rd pair a ton OOP and checking the river b/c you think opp is more likely to bet a weaker hand than call with one, then you know as much as I do. If you constantly fear a suckout with top pair, you need to take off the foil hat. I call some of the time with middle pair-flush draw when I miss my flush-- in a 10BB pot, opp may have a busted draw 10% of the time, or just be FOS. If you're my opponent, you're missing value against me, let alone vs a fish who thinks "I have pair-- I might win." When you get raised on the river, then you have a tough place, but I suspect bet-calling TPTK every time is better than constantly fearing the monsters in the closet and checking it. You'll learn to read who never raises without 2pr or better, and who random-raises rivers because they think you're a folder.

If nobody has shown any aggression, assume they are fishy enough to pay off with 2nd pair. If your kicker is good, hope they have top pair (who folds KT when a K flops?). In general, give 25-50 level players less respect.
-Curtis

[montauk]

nice post VB.

This may seem a little egocentric, but 95-99% of the time when i have TPTK I take away pot odds, about 3/4 of the pot and then 2/3 pot on the turn as a generaly rule and cannot fathom how people could have missed their draw when they're calling me with those bets. I figure they are smooth calling a bigger hand...shouldnt give them so much credit i guess.

[VBCurtis]

There's a few places in my post where it's implicit I'm talking about limit only... 10BB pot, never mentioning bet sizes, etc. I have no clue about any NL stats, sorry.
-curtis