Variance

[maxpowers21]

I posted a similar question as a real question in beats, brags, and variance, but all i got was forum troll responses, so i was hoping for a genuine answer in this section, or reference to a previous post.

What is the likelihood of a -100 BB downswing in any given 1000 hand interval of full ring limit holdem poker, assuming a winning player in a lag-type beatable game. By "liklihood" I mean what is a good estimate or mathematical percentage of this happening?

what about an average player? or a 2000 hand interval?

[AaronBrown]

We have to put some numbers on "winning" and "LAG" to give a precise answer. Say the expected win rate is 2BB/100 hands, with a standard deviation of 20 BB/100 hands. Then you expect to be 20 BB ahead after 1,000 hands; being down 100 BB is 120 BB below expectation. Your standard deviation over 1,000 hands is 20 times the square root of 10, or 63 BB. The ratio, 120/63 is 1.9, which corresponds to about 1 chance in 35.

That is the chance of ending the 1,000 hands 100 BB poorer than you started. The chance of a 100 BB swing at some point during the 1,000 hands, is about twice that. So something like 1 in 20 is a reasonable number, if my assumptions about your win rate and standard deviation are correct. That's unlikely enough that you should question your assumptions (are you still a winning player in this game? is your standard deviation under control?); but likely enough that if you're confident of the answers to those questions it could be just a run of bad luck. If you get a second 100 BB downswing, something's wrong.

[maxpowers21]

thank you for the input and response.

[canada_dry]

Max,

For what it's worth, I've given up on BBV. Sarcasm and ridicule is what it's about there.

[Siegmund]

Shhhh. That way we can banish some of the sarcasm and ridicule that would otherwise be on the rest of the boards, to one we don't read.

[YOYO36]

IN THIS FORUM 70-80% OF THE RESPONSES ARE RETARDED JOKES