AKo UTG+1 against LAG - Party 2/4

jedinemesis · #1 09-01-2006, 10:11 PM

UTG was a 35/15 and aggressive post flop. When do you slow down here? Do you slow down?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 8 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

River: (11.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 15.75 BB

Allday Everyday · #2 09-01-2006, 10:38 PM

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When do you slow down here? Do you slow down?

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I think preflop is good. Given that you think villain is aggressive postflop, I think flop is good. I'd slow down at the turn. I'd bet if checked to, however, after being bet into, I'd simply have called the turn. No way I'd raise the river. Top par with top kicker doesn't seem good enough against this action IMO. I think you're overplaying your hand.

Then again, you said he was aggressive postflop. Exactly how aggressive is he postflop? Maybe your play is better than it seems. Still don't think I'd raise the river though.

jedinemesis · #3 09-01-2006, 10:44 PM

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When do you slow down here? Do you slow down?

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I think preflop is good. Given that you think villain is aggressive postflop, I think flop is good. I'd slow down at the turn....

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Do you slow down on the turn even though you have the nut flush draw?

Allday Everyday · #4 09-01-2006, 10:53 PM

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Do you slow down on the turn even though you have the nut flush draw?

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Yes, I would. I realise we seem to have a number of outs including outs to the nuts. Personally, I'd call the turn planning to raise the river if I hit my flush, another ace, or another king. Call the river otherwise IMO.

If the villain has two pair on the turn, and you aren't reverse dominated, I think you are at best a 65% underdog at the turn. Also, the villain may have better than two pair. No sense raising when you don't seem to have the best of it.

ncboiler · #5 09-02-2006, 12:16 AM

You quote his VPIP and his PFR but you realize in this situation it is his AF that is most important right?

BenA · #6 09-02-2006, 12:26 AM

Good hand post.

If those stats and your reads have enough hands and experience to back them up, then I agree with Allday that the flop 3-bet was in well done. The thing is, he capped you on the flop, and so its time to start doing some serious thinking.

HU against a loose agressive villain is far from simple. With that PFR, his range could be AA-77, AK down through JTs and worse. So unfortunately KT is in his range, as is TT and a less likely KK (since he didn't cap PF). If he is position aware, 44 is far less likely, but its not impossible. 2 clubs is a far less of a possiblity for capping the flop unless he holds specifically QJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], KJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or KQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. But we must assign these at least a small percentage.

So on the turn, you are still often ahead, but probably an underdog the majority of the time. So you are now drawing to your nine flush outs and 4 2 pair or better outs. I think that the possibility of you being ahead + the pot size easily justifies calling down UI, but I don't like the turn raise, and I think the river is spewing. This guy is not slowing down, and if he is a thinking player at all, he is fully aware that AK is a great likelihood in your range. With this much agression, you pretty much only beat KQ, you are drawing well against QJ (suited or not), KT, TT, KK, 44, (though against all sets, you are drawing now to only 8 outs). You could also chop with another AK.

The whole point is, consider carefully what it is you could possibly beat to warrant your play. While I won't call the turn play terrible, I have no idea why you are raising this river. You subject yourself to being 3-bet, and often what he calls you with will beat you. He may have just called, but that could mean a set or 2 pair afraid of the flush or a higher set.

This is a kind of non-standard WA/WB hand, and I truly believe that on the turn, its okay to start backing off. If he is purely bluffing, let him do it. If he has a good hand that can't beat yours, let him pay you. If you are behind, pay the minimum. The only reason to raise here in this situation might be value, but that's looking pretty thin. Call down from the turn.

BenA · #7 09-02-2006, 12:29 AM

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You quote his VPIP and his PFR but you realize in this situation it is his AF that is most important right?

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I think he does, but he chose to leave the number out and say:

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...and agressive postflop.

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So the number may be even more helpful, but let's just estimate an AF of 2.5 - 3.5.

ncboiler · #8 09-02-2006, 12:37 AM

Sometimes I wonder if people realize what "aggressive post flop" really means.

BenA · #9 09-02-2006, 12:42 AM

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Sometimes I wonder if people realize what "aggressive post flop" really means.

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Well, what do you think it means? And why do you think an AF number is better than the description?

ncboiler · #10 09-02-2006, 12:49 AM

It is dependant on the number of hands you play. If someone plays +50% of their hands then and they have an AF of +1.00 that is agressive. Actually very aggressive.