NL100: Missed valuebet with AA

Van Strummer · #1 09-01-2006, 05:49 PM

I constantly find myself missing valuebets on the river with one pair hands after my flop and turn bets have been called. What would be the correct bet size here, and can I fold if he raises? Villan 30/7/0.6 after 50 hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($66.44)
BB ($139.27)
UTG ($138.94)
MP ($61.24)
CO ($37.78)
Hero ($194.83)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, BB calls $4, UTG calls $4.

Flop: ($15.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $4, Hero raises to $17, BB folds, UTG calls $13.

Turn: ($49.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $30, UTG calls $30.

River: ($109.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $109.50

krazyace5 · #2 09-01-2006, 05:54 PM

I'd push here.

Jamougha · #3 09-01-2006, 05:54 PM

All in.

Barrin6 · #4 09-01-2006, 05:57 PM

I woulda bet more on the turn and as played pot river/go-allin against this calling station. He could have AT,KT,QT,JT. His flop donk looks like he's either trying to block bet his top pair and/or drawing to his spade flush. Guy is really passive, so go ahead and value bet river with no fear.

Casper05 · #5 09-01-2006, 05:57 PM

goodness Im weak tight...finding that out today...better late than never I guess.

Is this a push because villian only called behind the whole way? A raise normally indicates a better hand, but calls (from normaly villians) mean less than TP?

krazyace5 · #6 09-01-2006, 05:59 PM

He either has a broken flush draw or smaller 2 pr. He isn't going to check to you on the river with anymore than that. imo.

Todd · #7 09-01-2006, 07:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands that you beat will he call with?
What hands that he is winning will he fold?

I cant see villian calling with anything except over pairs to the T, which seems very unlikely, and T8 for the higher 2 pair than Heros hoped for AT.

I cant see hero folding a 2, or anyother set, so I am not sure what we gain by pushing.

Todd

Dan Bitel · #8 09-01-2006, 07:52 PM

todd,

he calls with any TP and a lot worse as well