JJ early position bet or c/r riv?

[willie24]

10/20 online. MP1 villain is loose passive preflop and tight/passive postflop. He doesn't raise unless he's almost sure he's ahead. CO is TAG...strong player.

hero open raises from UTG2 with J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP1 calls. folded to CO who 3bets. folded to hero who calls. MP1 calls.

flop: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

hero bets. MP1 calls. CO folds.

turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

hero bets. MP1 raises. Hero 3bets. villain caps.

now I am at least 75% sure villain has QT.

river: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

bet or check/raise?

[mr pink]

I'd usually cap preflop but given your read on CO as being solid, I can understand why. most times I just say [censored] it b/c of the cold caller anyways.

this is like the easiest river c/r in the history of river c/r's. I'm kinda concerned that you put him squarely on QT, he could easily have 88 or 66 here... not that it matters v. much, but putting villain on a single hand is usually a bad idea.

[willie24]

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I'm kinda concerned that you put him squarely on QT, he could easily have 88 or 66 here...

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I think this particular villain would likely just call the 3bet with 66 or 88...hence 75% estimate on QT. he cold calls preflop with all 3 hands almost every time so i think QT is definitely the most likely...but yes you are right that another set or 2pair is possible

[willie24]

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this is like the easiest river c/r in the history of river c/r's

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I'd like some elaboration here. how often will he raise a river bet with QT? how often will he raise a river bet with 66 or 88? how often will he check behind with QT if checked to? what if the river was a spade?

[Westley878]

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I'm kinda concerned that you put him squarely on QT, he could easily have 88 or 66 here...

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I think this particular villain would likely just call the 3bet with 66 or 88...hence 75% estimate on QT. he cold calls preflop with all 3 hands almost every time so i think QT is definitely the most likely...but yes you are right that another set or 2pair is possible

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Willie, I agree with your estimate about this player having QT. When a tight passive postflop player caps the turn, this will usually mean the nuts. Against this type of player my estimate of QT might actually be around 90% or higher, which is the same idea as you had. Now on to the river. Against this opponent you should never bet this river, becuz I believe he will almost never raise you here. If you bet into him on the river when the board pairs after he capped your 3 bet on the turn, he will just call with his straight fearing correctly that you have a boat. However if you check the river, the tight passive player will usually not be able to resist betting his straight for value, and then you checkraise and he will make his crying call.

So against a tight passive player checkraising is the better line than bet/3bet becuz the tight passive player is unlikely to raise your river donk bet becuz he will fear the nuts.

Against a smart tag, checkraising the river is also the best line, becuz if you bet the river, a smart tag will just call not out of fear, but becuz he will know that all he really has here is a crying call since you are now betting into him on the river after he capped you on the turn.

The time that bet/3bet is the better line on the river over checkraising is when you are up against the kind of player that plays too aggressive postflop and overvalues his hands a lot. There are many Lags out there like this, and some tags are capable of overplaying their hand on the river also.

With no read on the opponent, I still think the check/raise line will make you more money in the long run than bet/3bet, simply becuz most players will freeze up if you donk this river card after that turn action.

[mikeyKay]

i mis-read the action.....and deleted my post.

-mike

[Dazarath]

I think I'd be more likely to bet, as a TAG would probably know that 2nd 9 boated you up.

[alphanumerics]

wait here... i dont mind the river c/r, but what if the hands are switched... what if will has QT, OOP, and the board pairs? do you lead the river and call a raise? or do you just give in and c/c the river?