KTs hand, turn action...

[Vern]

So what happened? Wondering if my read was anywhere near close.

[kumarshah]

Buton had AA
UTG+1 had K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[CrMenace]

*grunch*

I think call down is the right play here. Button could have AA, KK, or AK, which you usually beat. UTG could have hit his set, which I'm a bit nervous about, but could be getting frisky with Kx or K4 (or you could chop).

Bottom line- WA/WB: call down

[Absolution]

I raise this preflop.

UTG+1 check raising 2 people is a strong play. The best you can hope for I think is that he is chopping with you or is on a strong draw and is actually the favorite right now.

I'd call on the turn.

The river looks okay. Everybody looks scared of the queen which means UTG+1's set of 4s are good now.

[Christian_Peters]

Who cares about PF? The real dilemma here is the turn.

When UTG c/3-bets, and then donk bets into the flop capper, you are very likely beaten. However, the pot lays you 12.75-1 and your hand only has to be good here 8% of the time, so folding is clearly a mistake. So, the question becomes “call or raise?” I think the consensus here is that calling this down is the best plan, but is it? Can an argument be made for raising, to knock the Button out? He could have something like AQ, which has 4 outs to beat us, or AK which has 3 outs to beat us. If we call, we give him 13.75-1, so he is certainly correct to call with AQ, and maybe even with AK (unless he is smart enough to know he’s out against a set and will fold). However, if we raise, we only give him 7.4-1, and he is now in a lose/lose situation. However, a raise exposes us to a 3-bet from UTG and a lot of people think a raise here is spew. I did my best to represent our dilemma in an EV:

Given UTG’s action, I think it’s reasonable to assume he has a set about 80% of the time (he probably has 44, but he could also have TT – not everyone raises TT UTG). Now then, if we raise UTG’s set, let’s say 50% of the time he will RR us and lead the River and 50% of the time he will get scared of a str8, and will just call and c/c the River. Let’s also say that Button folds every time we raise (or calls unprofitably).

So, if we raise:
EV = (0.2*16.75) [20% our hand is good] + (0.4*-2)[40% of the time we lose but his set is scared of the str8, so he doesn’t RR or bet the River] + (0.4*-4)[40% of the time we lose but he RR us and leads the River] = 0.95

If we call, and let the Button in, say that the button has a 4 outer so that he hits his hand about 10% of the time:
EV = (0.8*-2)[80% of the time our hand looses to the set] + (0.18*17.75)[20% our hand is good – the 10% of times we get drawn out on] + (0.02*-17.75)[the times we get drawn out on by button and lose the whole pot that was ours] = 1.24
1.24 > 0.95

So, I guess it’s better to just call. But since I’m trying to get better at these EV calculations, could someone point out to me if I screwed up somewhere, like in terms of math. And also, if we are risking 2BB to win 0.95, does that mean that raising here is –EV? That is, is it better to fold than to raise?