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#1
08-29-2006, 04:03 PM
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good middle (60 cent baseball)
EDIT: oops that 260 should be 200. making it 22 - 26.7 = -4.7 and -ev? i thought we came to the conclusion in an earlier thread that 60 was nearly always +EV in baseball though... sorry for the false alarm
I am including the sportsbooks on this one. so i don't care if you guys profit from this but i would appreciate it if you evaluated the EV of this. LA moneyline -130 pinny SEA runline +1.5 -130 (both wsex and bwwts) apparently away teams win by 1 11% of the time. so 200*.11 + -30 * .89 = 22 - 26.7 = -4.7??? the O/U is 8 so i think that makes it slightly more likely the away team wins by one. i don't know how to quantify that though. btw bodog has a moneyline on seattle at +128. which seems good to me. but i am not a winning(or a losing) handicapper so bet that at your own risk. EDIT: i only checked out a few books on this one. pinny bodog, sportsbook, betwwts, wsex, and maybe one or two others. so there is a decent chance there is a better line out there so shop around 
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#2
08-29-2006, 04:15 PM
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Re: good middle (60 cent baseball)
[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: oops that 260 should be 200. making it 22 - 26.7 = -4.7 and -ev? i thought we came to the conclusion in an earlier thread that 60 was nearly always +EV in baseball though... sorry for the false alarm I am including the sportsbooks on this one. so i don't care if you guys profit from this but i would appreciate it if you evaluated the EV of this. LA moneyline -130 pinny SEA runline +1.5 -130 (both wsex and bwwts) apparently away teams win by 1 11% of the time. so 200*.11 + -30 * .89 = 22 - 26.7 = -4.7??? the O/U is 8 so i think that makes it slightly more likely the away team wins by one. i don't know how to quantify that though. btw bodog has a moneyline on seattle at +128. which seems good to me. but i am not a winning(or a losing) handicapper so bet that at your own risk. EDIT: i only checked out a few books on this one. pinny bodog, sportsbook, betwwts, wsex, and maybe one or two others. so there is a decent chance there is a better line out there so shop around [/ QUOTE ] 60 cents is a lot of juice for only one run.
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#3
08-29-2006, 04:18 PM
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Re: good middle (60 cent baseball)
yea i guess so. i messed up the math before i posted. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
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