"Survival" leagues

[Chrisman886]

I have just joined a FFB survival league. Has anyone had any success in this type of league? Any advise? Is just looking at the lines each week a good way to pick?

Thanks in advance.

[youtalkfunny]

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Is just looking at the lines each week a good way to pick?

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Absolutely.

Avoid FPS (Fancy Play Syndrome). Never plan two moves ahead--always live in the present.

NEVER SAVE A TEAM FOR LATER. If they're the obvious pick this week, go with them.

BTW, you might be prohibited from picking a team more than once, but there's no rule against picking AGAINST the same Sad Sack teams, week after week.

[Chrisman886]

Awesome. Thank you very much!

[MCS]

Youtalkfunny gives good advice here.

Just do your best to survive week to week. People try to get fancy and consider who's playing who in like week 15.

The thing is, later in the season, good opportunities will present themselves, some because teams will be underperforming and some will be overperforming. So there will be games that don't look good now, but will later.

[BriMc]

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BTW, you might be prohibited from picking a team more than once, but there's no rule against picking AGAINST the same Sad Sack teams, week after week.

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This is the best piece of advice for these leauges. When I've done these leauges in the past the first thing I'd do every week is look to see who the bottom 5 teams were playing, and pick accordingly. I've won knockout pools several times this way.

This is a good place to start when scouting the bottom http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/powerranking

[dicelumpY2005]

Just pick against the Bills every road game this year...that'll be 8 wins for you...

[drossxyu]

I think the African-American team is going to win because of the physical challenges.

Just my two-cents.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
I have just joined a FFB survival league. Has anyone had any success in this type of league? Any advise? Is just looking at the lines each week a good way to pick?

Thanks in advance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never played in one of these leagues, but it seems to me that you don't always want to go with the obvious pick. The reason is that is what everyone else will be doing. For example, let's say Team A has a 80% chance of winning and Team B has a 70% chance of winning. If you know that 90% of the people in the pool are going to pick Team A, then Team B becomes the obvious choice.

Assuming a 100 person pool, your probability of winning is...

Option 1 - Team A (80%)

P(Win) = .8*.3*(1/90) + .8*.7*(1/100) + .2*.3*(1/100) = .886%

Option 2 - Team B (70%)

P(Win) = .2*.7*(1/10) + .8*.7*(1/100) + .2*.3*(1/100) = 2.02%

I'm not positive that I did those calcs right, but I'm pretty sure the idea is sound. Basically, if you're sure that most people are going to pick the biggest favorite and there is another team that has a slightly smaller chance of winning, you should pick that team because if the biggest favorite loses many more people will be eliminated and your overall winning percentage will go up.

-- Homer

[youtalkfunny]

That might be a decent idea when you make it to the final table. At that time, there are only a few players left, and you can look at their past picks, to narrow down their likely choices for this week.

But early on, all the Dead Money players will be doing goofy things to get themselves eliminated. Until they do, just stay the course with the obvious picks.

[MCS]

Homer,

Yeah, this is the same idea as how to pick 8/9 games in NCAA pools.


"Gain separation without giving up expectation!"