River hypothetical

[chaosuk]

6-handed. Cut-off raises. Big blind calls.

Profile the players two semi-TAGs.

flop Q-5-7 rainbow.

chk-bet-raise-call.

Turn:2

chk-chk

River A.

chk-bet.

Question: Given co is dealt KJ what percentage of the time will this hand be played that way. K9s (with a backdoor fl drw)? How would these figures alter for other profiles?

thanks

[Bill King]

dude nobody is gonna respond to this unless you give more info

[Fianchetto]

The question is pretty vague, but I don't see CO playing either hand like that (KJ, K9) very often if he plays well.

The river bet will almost never be called by a worse hand, and the thing is you have some showdown value against any missed draw or bluff by the BB. So it makes more sense to check it I think.

The only question is how often the BB folds something like middle/bottom pair to the river bet (but wouldn't those hands normally have followed through with a turn bet?). You probably get looked up by any pair, and if the BB folds you usually had the best hand anyway. Plus, you open yourself up to a river checkraise bluff. Yeah, seems like a bad river bet.

[DeathDonkey]

I think its an odd question and I especially think the turn action is odd as that would rarely occur. But I would play KJ and K9s this way fairly often against a tight player, and I think it works much much better in a live game. I just got back from Vegas so I may be skewed by the games I played there, but in the 30/60, 40/80, and some of the players in the 100/200 games there would play a small pp, and a 5 or a 7 this way and immediately give up if they get suspicious of your quick flop call. But I do think a lot of them would bet the turn, and I have to admit that I have less experience dealing with someone would take the line of checkraise the flop and now check a total blank on the turn.

-DeathDonkey

[chaosuk]

Thanks for the response. I’m not sure the question is vague, I think my it is clear - just hard to measure; besides I‘d have taken a few wet fingers.

In this hand I was the BB, and on the turn decided to check, with a view to cr.
It’s a very occasional play here*, albeit a low part of the mix, as are other plays, especially SH against tougher opposition. Anyway the analysis of the river-call@ 5.25 –1 becomes reasonably dependent on how often CO would play these hands this way. My view is that KJ will often survive the flop cr against many BB profiles and bet the river too, since, they realise that weak pairs are very tempting to fold when the river pings the river after a turn free from action. I’d imagine the %age of times KJ would play this way would sensitive to fairly small changes in profiles of BB. Certainly I think there are some co players who would never fold the flop against a decent range of BB profiles, and almost always bet the river. And, of course, if so this pays for 5 other hands that beat the BB which also are played this way by CO, when BB is contemplating a call.

Btw: I don’t feel a kj fears a cr here, it’s not typical imo- especially in pots where say a turn check is more typical - on a hand which runs 5-7-2-Q-A.
-which perhaps merits more discussion, as the check is more typical on this turn.

regards

chaos

* for example, I think it’s of worthy consideration with say KQ – though of course, more often not than so.