Movie Lines 8/25

[Utah]

I just did a bunch of analysis on similar movies to beerfest and 7.5, the current tradespot number, doesnt look doable.

If you take their 1 day total and multiply by 3 you get 7.8. However, these movies always drop off from friday to saturday and from saturday to sunday. I couldnt find one comparable movie that doesnt. In fact, most movies show this drop (but dumb college movies more). Even Talladega dropped from 18m to 16m to 12m.

I am going to do a small sell offering +177 and if this strategy is successful I will exploit it for real money later.

This trend seems to put both invincible and idlewild on the under side. So, the likeliest event is that all 4 movies are under. Maybe I am missing something??

[321Mike]

I just logged in to Pinnacle and found that they have already decided Beerfest, Invincible, and Worms opening weekend bets. With the SBD numbers for Saturday these 3 seem like locks, but isn't it a little weird to decide on a wager before the event is even over? Or have I lost track of what day it is (wouldn't be the first time)?

Edit: Just in case anybody didn't look at SBD - Over on Invincible, Under on Beerfest and Worms, no decision yet on Idlewild.

[Utah]

Box Office Mojo has Idlewild predicted at 5.8m based on friday and saturday numbers. So, it is very close at this point to the $6m line.

[AmonRaa]

Sorry for such n00b question but where on earth do you see movie lines on pinnacle (there are emmy awards under Propositions/Futures but thats it from the movie world)?

[321Mike]

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Sorry for such n00b question but where on earth do you see movie lines on pinnacle (there are emmy awards under Propositions/Futures but thats it from the movie world)?

[/ QUOTE ]
It has its own category under props/futures, but there isn't anything listed right now. Betting on this weekends movies is closed (obviously) and next weekends movies won't go up for a couple days.

[rawl316]

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well, I went with invincible over and beerfest under. I got +139 on both, which is extremely good if Utah is right. It seems like a board consensus for under on beerfest, which makes the price even more puzzling.

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and boom goes the dynamite [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Thremp]

I think we should add as a rule... Potentially dumb niche movies are able to bomb.

[mmbt0ne]

Idlewild predicted at 5.89M now. Jesus this is close.

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
I just logged in to Pinnacle and found that they have already decided Beerfest, Invincible, and Worms opening weekend bets. With the SBD numbers for Saturday these 3 seem like locks, but isn't it a little weird to decide on a wager before the event is even over? Or have I lost track of what day it is (wouldn't be the first time)?

Edit: Just in case anybody didn't look at SBD - Over on Invincible, Under on Beerfest and Worms, no decision yet on Idlewild.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does the happy dance. If Idlewild goes under (which looks most likely) I'm 4 for 4.

[Utah]

WOOHOO. Actuals out. Idlewild under with 5.7m. So sweet at +166.