($11) Push AQo against 3x raise?

[gulon]

BB was very tight and did not defend blinds. CO was TAG, not much else of a read on him.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t1600)
Button (t1330)
Hero (t1813)
BB (t1950)
UTG (t1900)
MP (t4907)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t450</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>. Hero...

I folded this in the game. On review, I wondering this could have been a PUSH?

Assuming that BB folded, if CO was stealing then his calling range would be tight and my FE + win% would be high.

If CO raised with a smaller range TT+/AQ+ then I have no FE and his call% and my lose% would be higher.

Since my read was that he was TAG I folded. However, at 75/150 everybody is also motivated to steal blinds. Am I giving him too much credit for good cards here? Mitigating between a tight player's tendancies and their motivation to steal is a tough one that affects EV significantly.

[tigerite]

I would probably push, it's close though

[Sh@i'tan]

I push this. And yes i think you are giving CO too much credit for good cards here.

[jjpregler]

Even if the CO is making a value raise here and not just a move to steal, I think his range is much wider than TT+/AQ+. AT can make a value raise from that late position, KQ, or 88. There are only 4 hands you don't want to see, so even if you are called, you are probably at worst a coin flip, but you are at the point in your stack where you don't have much more time to play too careful.

[gulon]

Assuming the same bet/call ranges, 13% (44,A9,A5s,KJs) looks like the equilibrium point (using SNGWIZ). That range seems looser than CO would be betting with for value?

[scrilla]

I think a fold is probably better than a push here.

You have a nice stack and if the raiser is TAG then his range here is pretty tight since he also has a nice stack and isnt in pushbot mode yet.

Scrilla

[scrilla]

What is your range for shoving over the top here?

What pocket pairs are you getting it in with?

Scrilla

[TravestyFund]

This is an EASY shove against most CO ranges.

[AMT]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a fold is probably better than a push here.

You have a nice stack and if the raiser is TAG then his range here is pretty tight since he also has a nice stack and isnt in pushbot mode yet.

Scrilla

[/ QUOTE ]


i disagree due to our lovely gap concept. even TAGs open wider in the CO here. without a read that he is specifically THAT tight in all positions, i dont think this is much of a decision. a fold is reasonable against very specific villains but most of the time this is an easy shove.

[scrilla]

Travesy,

What is your range for shoving over here?

I obviously have a problem in that I usually fold in these spots so help me fix it! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Scrilla