600NL. River c/r against a 2p2er?

[bdawg56kg]

I'm pretty sure villain is 2p2. His stats are 21/17/3.5. He seems solid and neither of us has gotten out of line.

I think he probably has the As, or maybe a hand like QQ/JJ, but I think if I bet out $120 on the river he'd probably fold QQ/JJ. It's also possible that he has KK, but I don't think he'd slowplay this much. He might have a flush, but I would think he'd bet the flop with a flush draw. Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($1001.50)
UTG ($609)
MP ($888.30)
CO ($1227.46)
Button ($960.12)
SB ($402.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $21</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB (poster) calls $18, Hero calls $15.

Flop: ($63) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks.

Turn: ($63) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $48</font>, MP calls $48, SB folds.

River: ($159) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks...

[philipsaurus]

a crying call from QQ/JJ is much more likely than QQ/JJ bluffing river imo.

[DJ Sensei]

check is good here, you'll get a bluff from this player way more often than you'll get a value bet called.

Especially given the weak-looking "call preflop, check flop, probe turn, check river" line.

[Spencer C]

[ QUOTE ]
check is good here, you'll get a bluff from this player way more often than you'll get a value bet called.

Especially given the weak-looking "call preflop, check flop, probe turn, check river" line.

[/ QUOTE ]

yup

[ArturiusX]

Sexy.

[DLizzle]

i like. I don't know why villain didn't bet the flop. I bet that flop with any hand every time I think. His most likely hand is a small flush draw I think, or maybe Asx? This river check raise is super sexy when he has the small flush.

[viciouspenguin]

here are the scenarios i see

1. villain has a hand like JJ and wants to sd as cheaply as possible. he'll check behind but if you vbet he will call because he "underrepresented his hand".

2. villain has a K and vbets when you check (since your line is not necessarily strong). you c/r he folds most likely. if you vbet strong he will call with K. generally approximatily the same result, but since you're controlling the bet size on the river you can make more by potting straight out

3. he is floating you on turn to bluff you or he has a busted spade draw. he may or may not bluff here and you get that extra $x he bluffs at the pot with if he checks and he bets

4. he slowplays a strong had that beats yours. you get stacked either way.

5. he slowplays a strong hand that doesn't beat yours. he may fold to a c/r, but he may push if you bet again (since c/r looks a lot stronger).

therefore i generally just pot this river but depending on other factors (villain's bluffing frequencies, timing, history, flow of game, etc) i go for c/r as well.

[LegallyBlind]

oops i posted this in the wrong thread:


i think QQ, JJ are both checking behind on this river. Maybe he has the naked As or something. but if he didn't have at least a pair, you would kind of expect a c-bet on the flop, given your description. I think i like making a weak lead on the river, like 50, hoping he reads it as weak and tries to push you off your hand. you'll also get a crying call from hands he would check behind on the river.

[UOPokerPlayer]

Filthy, in a good way.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
here are the scenarios i see

1. villain has a hand like JJ and wants to sd as cheaply as possible. he'll check behind but if you vbet he will call because he "underrepresented his hand".

2. villain has a K and vbets when you check (since your line is not necessarily strong). you c/r he folds most likely. if you vbet strong he will call with K. generally approximatily the same result, but since you're controlling the bet size on the river you can make more by potting straight out

3. he is floating you on turn to bluff you or he has a busted spade draw. he may or may not bluff here and you get that extra $x he bluffs at the pot with if he checks and he bets

4. he slowplays a strong had that beats yours. you get stacked either way.

5. he slowplays a strong hand that doesn't beat yours. he may fold to a c/r, but he may push if you bet again (since c/r looks a lot stronger).

therefore i generally just pot this river but depending on other factors (villain's bluffing frequencies, timing, history, flow of game, etc) i go for c/r as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice post. Regarding scenerio 4 I think bet/calling usually prevents us from getting stacked by better hands because of stacks while c/r and call obv never does. He will never push over a c/r with a worst hand imo but will raise worst hands. Also, we have to consider scenerio 6 when he goes for a heroic bluff raise (unlikely but it's hugely +EV when he does). So adding these factors I like a betsize of around 125, because it's easier for a marginal hand to call, easier for someone to bluff against, and we won't get stacked against KK/88/K8.