10/20 river bluff

Heimdal · #1 08-24-2006, 04:58 PM

Im trying out some new lines.

Villain is wilyarroyo. Good player with different gears etc. I normally don't play HU with him. He probably views me as solid. 10 hands into the match and we haven't seen a flop, mostly just folded our sb.
Normally I would just check quickly behind here but my hand is good < 15% and I thought I could get him to fold a king. This is a bluff. Im never getting called by worse hands. Thoughts? Is this standard?

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($2442)
BB ($2030)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $20.
BB raises to $50, Hero (poster) calls $40.

Flop: ($120) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $119, Hero calls $119.

Turn: ($358) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $250, BB calls $250.

River: ($858) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $625

flawless_victory · #2 08-24-2006, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is this standard?

[/ QUOTE ]
probably not.

brb9h · #3 08-26-2006, 06:11 PM

In my experience wily is a good player, and sometimes he check-raises rivers like this (both with nuts and air). Thus I think it's a river check most of the time. But given the turn check/call when the heart hit, maybe this river bet gets him to fold his set or two pair. In any case, it's always fun to bluff with top pair!

Results?

ZeeJustin · #4 08-26-2006, 07:24 PM

Your hand is good a lot more than 15% of the time, and your fold equity vs hands like KJ is a lot less than you think.

Edit: And as lapoker17 said, you also underestimate the chance of getting called by a worse hand.

lapoker17 · #5 08-26-2006, 07:25 PM

i definitely think you can get called by worse here. your line is kind of fishy.

i have no idea if it's right against this guy, but in some spots i would like this a lot.

Heimdal · #6 08-27-2006, 06:56 AM

He called with KhT. He gave the impression afterwards that he knew it was a bluff, so as I see it he probably wouldn't call with a worse hand than K5. Of course that doesnt mean he will fold better hands.

kagame · #7 08-27-2006, 05:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He gave the impression afterwards that he knew it was a bluff, so as I see it he probably wouldn't call with a worse hand than K5.

[/ QUOTE ]

This contains a huge contradiction.

brb9h · #8 08-27-2006, 05:35 PM

Yeah, I don't really get what you're saying Heimdal.

Heimdal · #9 08-27-2006, 06:50 PM

I had to read it several times after I wrote it.

After he saw the K5 he knew I wasn't valuebetting: so he knows that I think that he will not call with worse hands than K5.
And I think he knows this because he knows how he plays and he probably wouldnt call with K5 or worse because I'm a solid thinking straightforward player.

I think he is a better player than me and he could be thinking one or two levels above me.

I'm not sure the above made any sense. Maybe this hand will explain it better, 20 minutes later.

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($2457)
BB ($3045)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $20.
BB raises to $50, Hero (poster) calls $40.

Flop: ($120) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $119, Hero calls $119.

Turn: ($358) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $250, BB calls $250.

River: ($858) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $650, BB calls $650.

Final Pot: $2158

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ac 6c (flush, ace high).
BB has Qc Qs (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $2158.