Another Mansion free bet

[brendanb438]

Hedging enough to get $400 if the fish somehow cover the spread. Dont let me down Big Ben!!

[1huskerfan]

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correct.
To use really basic round-numbers, it's going to be an all-or-nothing for +$1000 if you let it ride.
So your EV is exactly $500 (half the time you win $1000, the other half $0).

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This is only true if the bet is indeed a coinflip. I would venture to say that most aren't. I am going to save myself he time of actually handicappingthe game myself and take the free $477 or so that they are giving out.

[slush fund]

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i am not hedging yet. just locked in but if there is some heavy betting on pittsburgh, the line on miami could move to +5.5 or +6, or even more. if that happens, its possible to have a freeroll on a side or middle. consider pitt will be opening at home on the opeing night of the NFL. lots of hype and possibly lots of fan money coming in on the defending champs, and almost a week and a half to go.

sure the line could move for miami, but if you are prepared to let it ride anyway, then that shouldn't matter. i have been plenty wrong before in guessing which way lines should go, but i am willing to wait to see if there's some movement on this one and go from there. gamboool!!!

[dynacraze]

can i do this bet if i already have a poker account at mansion but not sportsbook?

[Lessu]

I think it's one account for all their services like at party so yea you can.

[E.Z.]

do cashout just need an ID or also a bill??

and usually does address on ID have to match address of account. i've moved twice in the last 3 years

[1huskerfan]

Just ID

[MicroBob]

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Can't they just steal all the bets of thousands of users who will do it and disappear?

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Of course.

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This would ruin their business. They are making so much that the constant sportsbook/casino income is > the one time shot of stealing. Same with neteller.

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As far as depositing money is concerned there isn't any difference between this and other bonuses.
"Deposit $500, Get $100 bonus" on PartyPoker."
You are all familiar with those (of course, it takes a little longer to clear and they don't give you as much).


On this one you are depositing $1100.


Once upon a time, every Party or Stars reload there would be people really concerned with depositing 'so much money' ($500 or whatever) to get the 'free money' there because they would ask 'what's the catch? Seems like they just want to steal my money.'


It's only an $1100 deposit which you also happen to not get to touch for a couple weeks (and you have to verify your account to cash-out).
If Paarty and other poker-sites don't run for the hills everytime they require their players to deposit $500 or so for a reload then it seems unrealistic that Mansion would run for the hills with a bunch of players depositing $1100 for this promo.


Seriously, these sportsbooks make a LOT of money.
I believe it has been estimated that the winners in those neteller points drawings that they do are usually sports-bettors because they have such high volume of money transactions.

[MicroBob]

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I finally locked my $1100 bet in on the Steelers. Everyone should do this as soon as possible, per the terms and conditions and according to live support that when the odds change in the system on the game they are going to consider that as enough action on the promotion and most likely close the promotion to anyone else.


-Brendan

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So live support has officially stated that they will be cutting off this promo when the line moves on their site?

Please confirm what you know about this.

I was hanging onto my money a little bit longer but am going to place my bet right-away now and I will also encourage a couple friends of mine who are interested in doing this to jump on it immediately if what you say is true.

[jaybird]

My bet is locked in. No hedging here. Kill the fish!