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#11
08-25-2006, 05:02 PM
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Re: Are all $5 games donkfests?
I don't know if I play in enough events to show a profit with these donks hammering me like last night. I play 5-6 tourneys a week (if that). Last night I went down twice on suck outs and would then need to at least make a final table to break even. It just seems I end up losing (badly) way too often and making a final table 1 in 3 is unlikely.
I guess I'll have to stick to it and see how it goes. By the way I have all three HoH and have read all three about 100 times so I should be an above average player. Another interesting point... since it seemed to me (no data just a feeling) that I get sucked out on so much more often than I hit a miracle myself I have been tracking my results in "races". I assume that I am 50% to win any of these as half the time I'll be 55/45 and the other half 45/55 (hence I should win about 50%). I have been in 23 races and won 6. Also... Four ITM tables in August. Tried to steal on the button or CO with Ax with x greater than 6 (5 times). Ran into AQ, AKs, AQs and KK. One sucessful steal. Is this possible? Does bad luck exist? 
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#13
08-25-2006, 05:25 PM
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Re: Are all $5 games donkfests?
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if I play in enough events to show a profit with these donks hammering me like last night. I play 5-6 tourneys a week (if that). Last night I went down twice on suck outs and would then need to at least make a final table to break even. It just seems I end up losing (badly) way too often and making a final table 1 in 3 is unlikely. I guess I'll have to stick to it and see how it goes. By the way I have all three HoH and have read all three about 100 times so I should be an above average player. Another interesting point... since it seemed to me (no data just a feeling) that I get sucked out on so much more often than I hit a miracle myself I have been tracking my results in "races". I assume that I am 50% to win any of these as half the time I'll be 55/45 and the other half 45/55 (hence I should win about 50%). I have been in 23 races and won 6. Also... Four ITM tables in August. Tried to steal on the button or CO with Ax with x greater than 6 (5 times). Ran into AQ, AKs, AQs and KK. One sucessful steal. Is this possible? Does bad luck exist? [/ QUOTE ] So after losing $10 on your first two tourneys, you would need to final table the 3rd to break even? Wha? If the tourney doesn't pay $10 until the final table, it should be pretty easy to final table, b/c there are like 30 people in it.
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#14
08-25-2006, 05:33 PM
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Re: Are all $5 games donkfests?
[ QUOTE ]
Does bad luck exist? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. Bad luck exists because you die. Probability = God. Every event that happens to you and anywhere else has a probability of happening. We consider events lucky/unlucky when an event occurs that was not as likely as some other event. Over the course of time (many events) luck no longer exists as lucky and unlucky events must balance out. However, b/c we die and do not live forever, some might end on a lucky/unlucky event and thus they can claim for them personally, that the had bad/good luck. For the rest of us, we all just get normal probability. Good luck [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Shermn
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#15
08-25-2006, 05:59 PM
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Re: Are all $5 games donkfests?
I know everybody takes bad beats but I'm a real stats guy and an occasional beat doesn't get to me but lately, sheesh.
No please... I don't want to go to the BBV!! Shermn the philosopher... I love it. I must be close to a real series of good results. It better be soon.
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#16
08-25-2006, 06:03 PM
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Re: Are all $5 games donkfests?
[ QUOTE ]
I must be close to a real series of good results. It better be soon. [/ QUOTE ] Keep in mind that just because you're getting in with the best of it in some big bust-out pots doesn't mean you're playing optimally and have no leaks. You might be playing too tight in certain spots, or too loose in others, making bad folds postflop etc. So while you may be running unlucky this doesn't necessarilly mean you're playing great.
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#17
08-25-2006, 06:25 PM
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Re: Are all $5 games donkfests?
[ QUOTE ]
By the way I have all three HoH and have read all three about 100 times so I should be an above average player. [/ QUOTE ] ...classic.
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#18
08-25-2006, 06:42 PM
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Re: Are all $5 games donkfests?
This probably doesn't have a whole lot to do with this thread, but when I start running bad I usually take a real close look at my HHs and examine my game. Often times, what happens is I started out by running bad. The running bad tilted me some and I started playing like [censored]. Thus, I kept losing, although I was no longer really running bad, just playing bad. Anyway I'm sure that's just me and has no relevance here, just thought I'd share.
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#19
08-25-2006, 06:57 PM
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Re: Are all $5 games donkfests?
True, nobody has the perfect game. I seem to do much better when I can play straight forward poker. Solid preflop fundamentals and aggresive post flop play. I don't like to have to rely on a series of all-in situations to build a stack although it seems when I do get in as a favourite (ie. better than a race favourite) I'm taking the worse of it lately.
M's less than 10 or late in the tournament with blinds skyrocketing I'll gamble more but playing for 2 hours and then getting your KK busted on 63s or playing QQ in a solid manner and getting called down with 54o and losing just kills me!!! HoH obviously is not the only source of reading material although I'd say it's one of (if not) the best. I read probably as many hours as I play. Interestingly enough my ITM is higher in games with larger starting stacks and slower blinds but I guess that makes sense. Maybe I need to post a larger bankroll and play the $50.00, $100.00 games. At least in those games facing a 3xBB UTG raise followed by a 9xBB reraise means more than facing A6o and 33!!! Then again maybe not... I'm changing my screen name on PokerRoom to "DonkMePlease". Look for me.
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