$16 3 way possible bubble hand at 300/600 - Page 2

Jayyyyyyy · #11 08-25-2006, 10:11 AM

I think it has to be pretty close. If I'm small blind, I'm pushing any two here.

JuntMonkey · #12 08-25-2006, 10:18 AM

SB isn't pushing any 2 unless he's an idiot. He has to have something mildly decent as he has to beat UTG, and he probably has us beat.

As others have said, not exactly an instafold, but a fold nonetheless.

HesseJam · #13 08-25-2006, 10:19 AM

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Although I think it's a fold, I don't think its an instafold and I see why OP is posting it. Would anyone call an openpush from SB here? If so, you should probably be calling here, no?

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I would certainly not call an open push with Q-rag.

==> Instafold.

Get A9o and we have something to talk about.

ajmargarine · #14 08-25-2006, 10:38 AM

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SB isn't pushing any 2 unless he's an idiot. He has to have something mildly decent as he has to beat UTG

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He doesn't really Have to beat UTG.

t1861: SB's starting stack
t3071: SB's stack if he beats UTG and we don't get involved.
t1651: SB's stack if he loses to UTG and we don't get involved.

t1511: SB's stack if he folds preflop.

He should push almost any two here.

Jayyyyyyy · #15 08-25-2006, 10:42 AM

What do others think? Pushing any two from the sb in a situation like this is standard for me. Am I an idiot?

JuntMonkey · #16 08-25-2006, 10:59 AM

Okay...if it's folded to SB, he should push any 2 unless our calling range is retarded. With the presence of shortie, we see that it is still +EV to push even if he loses to UTG, as long as we're folding.

But SB only stands to gain 100 chips if he loses without us involved, and can lose it all if we are involved. So should he really push with his bottom 25%?

CoachDirty · #17 08-25-2006, 01:18 PM

I did some calcs, I didn't put UTG on any two, I mean would you push 52o here or just wait for the BB and hope you got a better hand.

Ranges: UTG 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q7s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,A2o+,K5o+, QTo+,JTo

SB 22+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,KTo+,QJo

With these ranges it is actually about +.27% so that would indicate push. If you tighten up SB then is becomes closer or a fold. Really depends on what range you put SB on.

blinlk182 · #18 08-25-2006, 03:20 PM

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I did some calcs, I didn't put UTG on any two, I mean would you push 52o here or just wait for the BB and hope you got a better hand.

Ranges: UTG 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q7s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,A2o+,K5o+, QTo+,JTo

SB 22+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,KTo+,QJo

With these ranges it is actually about +.27% so that would indicate push. If you tighten up SB then is becomes closer or a fold. Really depends on what range you put SB on.

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I could be completely wrong here, but if I were SB I'd be pushing a wide wide range to isolate.

Am I wrong in thinking that with the extra chips in the pot from UTG I can loosen my calling range and include Q9 in it? I would instafold the Q9 if it folded around to SB and he then pushed, but I feel like it could be profitable making the call now that UTG is in as well and putting SB on a close to any 2 range.

I don't have sngwiz, can anybody run this through there and see what they get?

ajmargarine · #19 08-25-2006, 03:51 PM

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I don't have sngwiz, can anybody run this through there and see what they get?

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I did. And stuff like this is where I disagree with ICM calcs. Even if you put both pushers at a real tight range of pushing only top 12%, you should call. Why?

You start the hand with 25.7% EQ. If you fold, you have 21.77% EQ. If you call, you have 23.12% EQ. Call > fold therefore you should call. But, inuitively, this just seems wrong because of the chance of you busting if you know they both are raising tight. Which they aren't in this hand.

If you put them both on top 80%, its 24.6%EQ if you push. So, you should push, meh.

CoachDirty · #20 08-25-2006, 05:40 PM

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I don't have sngwiz, can anybody run this through there and see what they get?

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I did. And stuff like this is where I disagree with ICM calcs. Even if you put both pushers at a real tight range of pushing only top 12%, you should call. Why?

You start the hand with 25.7% EQ. If you fold, you have 21.77% EQ. If you call, you have 23.12% EQ. Call > fold therefore you should call. But, inuitively, this just seems wrong because of the chance of you busting if you know they both are raising tight. Which they aren't in this hand.

If you put them both on top 80%, its 24.6%EQ if you push. So, you should push, meh.

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I understand what you are saying, and in the heat of battle I'd actually probably fold. However, the math is convincing me that I would be folding wrong. There are many things in SNG's that seem counterintuitive.