AA board pairs on river

[matt68228]

Villain has been 35/25/1.5 after about 100 hands, I have not seen him make any big bluffs. It felt kind of weak check folding the river, but I have a hard time putting him on a hand that does not include a 10, I think he reraises JJ+ and there are no obvious draws on the board that he would be calling with. Does anyone throw out a blocking bet of 25-30 here, or is it a clear fold?


PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($99.00)
CO ($232.30)
Button ($13.00)
SB ($78.00)
BB ($109.60)
UTG ($44.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, CO calls $4, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($9.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, CO calls $7.

Turn: ($23.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, CO calls $15.

River: ($53.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $35</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $88.50

[Jay Riall]

I think you have to fold. Stats like that mean he would be reraise JJ-KK pf and the only draw (45) got there on the turn. Looks like your ahead of a donk with 77-99 and thats about it.

[MrMxyztplk]

I can't see Villain calling flop and turn without 54, 22, 33, 66, and some T. So I like the c/f.

[linuxrocks]

Looks a bit weak to me, but the river fold is probably ok.

Why didn't you pot it on the turn ?

[MrMxyztplk]

[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you pot it on the turn ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the bet size is fine, given the board texture. If Villain floats with overs, I think a check might even be better.

[matt68228]

In retrospect maybe I should have bet 20 on the turn or gone for a c/r, but isnt that much more likely to fold out 10s with a middle kicker? Do you always just pot the turn when it looks like you are probably ahead?

[uminchu]

i like either a pot on the turn or a c/r on the turn as played nice laydown

[gimmetheloot]

looks fine, [censored] river.

[linuxrocks]

[ QUOTE ]
In retrospect maybe I should have bet 20 on the turn or gone for a c/r, but isnt that much more likely to fold out 10s with a middle kicker? Do you always just pot the turn when it looks like you are probably ahead?

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends, but in this case, I feel that we are quite ahead of his range, and we don't like seeing many of the river cards.

[MrMxyztplk]

[ QUOTE ]
...or gone for a c/r

[/ QUOTE ]

Not against this Villain.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you always just pot the turn when it looks like you are probably ahead?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. The problem I have with potting the turn is that it gets hands like T9, JT, QT, KT to fold, where they might call for $15. So why bet out all the hands you have beat and let all the better ones call? The T really sucks, but you WANT those T hands to call, knowing they're making a mistake.