Party 5/10 AA - can I fold the turn here?

[bozlax]

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Depending on what happens behind you, you're getting between 7.5 and 4.75 to 1 to see the river, and I just don't think you can give yourself enough live outs to make that call. If you knew, absolutely, that you were closing the action, then it's thin, but you could make the call.

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That is the part that is giving me trouble, I just don't know what SB is going to do. Him opening into all that action screams that he hit the straight and I don't want him reraising after my cold call here. If I knew I was closing the action here (that SB would just call) then I'd call this assuming I'm going to be getting around 6:1 to call the river bet as well.

I'm back and forth on this one and I don't think I'd play this the same way every time. But this certainly isn't an auto fold.

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The way it was played, I think it is an auto-fold.

I considered this hand for about an hour at the gym just now, and here's what I realized: this is an excellent example of why we only use a WA/WB line if it's HU, and therefore why we want to get this hand HU on the flop. It's just too damned hard to account for more than one opponent's hand, when the board is in the hotzone like this.

Is it reasonable for SB to call the flop with a gutshot? Absolutely. The first time he calls, he's getting 8:1, and if there's no more aggression he can easily peel 2 streets (getting 8:1 on the flop, and getting nearly 10:1 on a call on the turn). UTG's 3-bet, without a cap from Hero, just makes the turn odds a little better. But, if Hero caps, then it's not looking so much like he'll be able to get away for one bet on the turn, and he has to start worrying about whether he can get away from it if he doesn't hit on the turn, and how expensive it'll be to wind up folding a UI gutshot on the river, and how even if he hits his gutshot he might not be good for the whole thing, or even any of it, yada yada. And he gives up.

If Hero capped the flop and SB folded, then by all means call it WA/WB and call down. As played, fold.

[SeaEagle]

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Given UTG's stats, I think we can put him on JJ+/AK preflop (does he 3-bet TT OOP?). On the flop I think we can narrow that to AA/KK/AK (add in TT if he 3-bets that preflop, but that doesn't make it any better for Hero), unless he thinks Hero is a retard. When he raises the donkebet on the turn, I don't see how you can put him on AK; his PAF is 1.5, not 15, and he's OOP. That means UTG has a set or we're splitting with him, period.

A good portion of SB's range is going to have a jack in it (KJ/QJ are both good possibilities) taking away one of our straight outs, and AJ/J9 are possible, if unlikely (make it suited with one of the flop cards, and you're there, tho). Even if we assume that he's a donk and made two-pair on the turn, that doesn't help Hero that much because UTG's hand counterfeits Hero's two-pair outs.


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Let's start with UTG. There are 1 AA combos, 3 KK combos, 6 AK combos, and 3 TT combos (although they have to be discounted quite a bit, as you point out). Technically there are 3 QQ combos but I don't believe QQ is 3-betting this flop. Most likely, UTG will play all 4 of the reasonable hands (AA,KK,AK,TT) like in the hand. You could argue that AK wouldn't raise the turn, but even a 1.5 PFA knows that it's good to raise with TPTK and 4 outs to the nuts on a scary board when you can face an opponent with 2 bets. Even if we say he'll only raise the turn half the time with AK, there's a 50% chance that we're ahead of him right now.

Now, SB. Likely 2 pair (27 combos). Next most likely is an OESD with a pair (36 combos but less likely to play these hands as played). Once in a while he has AJ (8 combos and may have folded on the flop).

Our pot odds: 7.5-1 if SB doesn't raise. Worst case is 5-1. We have position so if we miss on the river and there's still heavy betting we can fold. If you knew you were going to pay 4 bets on the turn, you'd have to win 17% of the time justify the call; only 12% if you only put in 2 bets.

There's at least a 50% chance you're ahead of UTG. Maybe a 30-40% chance you're ahead of SB. So 15-20% of the time you're ahead right now. With the possible sitution of sb having AJ, you have outs to win the hand and in the quite likely case of sb having 2 pair and UTG having AK, you've got a bunch of outs.

If you can read UTG well enough to narrow his hand range to exactly KK, then it's a fold. If you open his range up to KK and AK, then it's a pretty easy call. Personally, I can't risk a 17+BB hand on a read as narrow as a single hand and I'd call down (or at least see the river).

[bozlax]

I have a couple of comments about your analysis, which I think is generally good, but these points push it to a different conclusion:

1. If UTG will only 3-bet AK on the flop 50% of the time, then we're behind more than we're ahead. You need him to 3-bet AK 100% of the time.

2. You left J9 out of SB's range. We also have to include TT/66 and a possibly-brain-damaged JJ, I think. I also don't think we can discount AJ/J9 much at all (see my previous discussion), and I don't think we can say he played those hands poorly, with the exception of calling 2.5 bets preflop and then only if it's offsuit.

3. If you call 2 and then the turn is capped (hell, if SB just 3-bets) behind you, you're never ahead and you have to assume that SB made one of the two possible straights, you're drawing to 3 outs, and your implieds suck.*

* This is actually a big point for me in this hand. We're trying to find a call when we're slightly behind or just even in the odds on a board where if we hit our nut draw the action is going to dry up faster than...well...something that dries up really, really fast. Or we're splitting.

[SeaEagle]

1. There are 6 AK combos and 3 KK combos. If he'll only bet half of his AK combos then we're ahead of those 3 but behind the 3 KKs, so we're ahead half the time. This is really the key part of my analysis. If you're ahead of UTG half of the time, this is an easy call.

2. I did leave J9 out. It's unlikely that J9 either called 2 cold in the blind or didn't fold for 2 more on the flop. I'm only discounting AJ for the fact that it might have folded the flop and would often c/r the turn, but there are only 8 combos of AJ anyway. I didn't include TT and 66 and should have. There's only 3 of each of these hands, so they're not going to make a big difference on my estimate that you're ahead of sb 30-40% of the time, although I agree that it would push us towards the lower end of the range.

3. Agreed that if sb 3-bets we're nearly always behind, and usually drawing thin (although he could easily be playing and 3-betting KQ here). But the opposite is true as well - if he doesn't 3-bet then it's much more likely he's on an OESD and a pair and you've gotta feel good about your chances in this hand. Over all, I still stand by my analysis that we're ahead of SB 30-40% of the time and if your hand range for UTG includes AK half the time, then you can basically justify your call just on the amount of time you're actually ahead in the hand. Whatever (dirty) outs you have, and you have some, just sweeten the pot.

* Your implied odds probably only break even here. I would guess you'll put in a river bet when you lose as often as you gain a bet when you win. But we don't need implied odds to justify a turn call. Our equity is well above 7.5-1 and not much below 5-1, if at all.

FWIW, the more I think about this, the more I'm convinced the first 2 bets are a call but if it comes back for 2 more it's a fold. Given the knowledge we have right now, my hand ranges give me well above 7.5-1 equity. But if both villians keep raising, I would narrow their hand ranges enough so that I didn't even have 11-1 any longer.

[bozlax]

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1. There are 6 AK combos and 3 KK combos. If he'll only bet half of his AK combos then we're ahead of those 3 but behind the 3 KKs, so we're ahead half the time. This is really the key part of my analysis. If you're ahead of UTG half of the time, this is an easy call.

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What happened to TT? There are 3 of those, too.

As to the rest, we disagree as to whether J9 would stay in preflop and AJ/J9 on the flop, which has us teetering on either sides of break-even. I'm waiting until I have a read on SB to press this turn, multiway, and I'd still have capped the flop (which I think might make the discussion of the turn moot).

[Ginge]

Thanks for the input guys, this is the first hand I've ever posted and I really appreciate all the effort.
I folded. I appreciate that there was a realistic chance that UTG had AK, however the SB donk made absolutely no sense into all that action so I took it to mean AJ, or KQ absolute minimum. Thinking that there was a good chance I had 3 outs to a chop, I made the fold. It turned out the SB was a mentalist with Q3 and UTG did indeed have AK (SB hit trips on the river).

Most of you have questioned why I didn't cap the flop. I didn't because I was planninjg to raise the turn, knowing that there was no chance I was going to force out the SB for another raise on the flop, having already called 2 bets cold.

However, the way the hand played out it seems I should have capped the flop, not to force people out but so I DEFINE MY HAND, and then UTG cannot raise the turn?
FWIW I'm very drunk

[Dhani]

I think so. you are beat by either 2 sets are one set and a straight. I think unhappy fold and hope they go to a showdown for future info.