The Ultimate "Should I Move Up" Thread

[kevkev60614]

I’ve been a member of this forum for over a year now, which means I’ve seen more than 365 “Should I Move Up?” threads. The FAQ is dead-on balls accurate when it comes to answering what will likely happen when you move up, but it’s not clear on when you should.

The problem: Because you’re so smart, you read the STTF FAQ before you began playing STTs. After doing so, you decided your initial deposit should be 50 buy-ins at the $5.50s, or $275. You’ve been beating the $5.50s handily, and have a 30% ROI over your first 140 games.

The good: even if you want to keep to your 50 buy-in rule, you’re now properly rolled for the $11s.
The bad: you still have no idea what your real ROI is at the $5.50s, or what it might be at the $11s. Here's a post where a pro shows his 20% ROI over his first 1,000 STTs and a 6% over his next 7,000.
The ugly: With a sample size of 140, you have no idea how good you are, but you’re not about to play 7,000 $5.50s to find out. If you knew your true ROI and current bankroll, you’d know whether to move up and you wouldn’t be reading this thread.

The answer: It’s really simpler than you think. It’s not how much money you have that determines where you should be playing, it’s about how well you play. Your br is just a constraint. If you're confident that you're able to play at a good ROI at a higher level and your br isn't a constraint, then you should do so. But people seem to want hard-and-fast rules, though, so here they are.

kevkev60614’s Moving Up Requirements
1) You have the required bankroll. Read the FAQ for more on br requirements. It’s my opinion that 30 buy-ins (including vig) will probably do if you’re playing mostly for fun at low stakes and can reload, but 100 buy-ins is smarter if you’re playing for a living at high stakes or can’t reload. wpr101 had a great thread on this topic.
2) You are beating your current level and it’s not close. If you have a 3% ROI at the $11s, you have more to learn before moving up.
3) When you browse the STTF for threads at the level you’re considering, the responses make sense.
4) You are willing to move back down if things don’t go well.

And that’s it. If you meet those four requirements, you should feel free to move up. If you don’t, it’s probably best to wait.

Other “Should I Move Up” Questions
Q: I’ve heard that level X is harder than level Y. Is this true?
A: As your buy-in increases, so does the difficulty. No exceptions. If you’ve heard otherwise, the person you heard it from was either lying, wrong, or experiencing variance.

Q: How many games must I play before I move up?
A: Note that number of games played is not one of my four requirements. It is much more relevant that you’re properly br’d, as evidenced by requirement #1, and that you’re comfortable with the idea of moving up, as evidenced by requirements #2-4.

Q: Should I move up or add more tables?
A: This is answered in the FAQ. The typical reply to this question is that both options likely offer similar short-term benefits, but that by adding tables you’re less likely to find your leaks and grow as a player. Moving up will help you more in the long run, unless you're planning to quit poker in the near future.

Q: What should I expect when I move up?
A: This is clearly answered in the FAQ. You have no reason to post this question. You are not special because you are moving up to the $109s or $55s or $11s. Moving up to any level is the same; your ROI will drop because your opponents are not as bad. Also, your opponents will not act dramatically different than they do now, you don’t need to add more moves to your repertoire or change your game much especially at the lower limits, and how much your ROI is likely to drop is completely indeterminable.

Q: I’ve decided to move up. Should I mix in games of both my new and old levels?
A: Sure. Whatever you feel most comfortable doing. It really doesn't matter.

Q: Is it a bad idea to skip a level?
A: You won't get a unanimous recommendation for obvious reasons. But sure. If you're confident you will succeed at a buy-in two levels up, go ahead. Whatever you feel most comfortable doing. It really doesn't matter.

[AMT]

very nice, this should probably be stickied...the only addition/edit i have is that the buy in comfort level, even for a serious player, can vary with different buy in and skill levels.

for example, i think 75 buy ins is completely sufficient for 16s and 27s if you study hard and play a lot and are comfortable with your game, and 100 is just very deep...once you hit the 55+ level on any site though, the deeper your roll should be. symantics but i just wanted to make it clear that even the most serious players dont "need" 100+ buy ins for a given low level.

[DevinLake]

Nice post.

I agree that your ability and bankroll are the obvious criteria and both must be met to move up. Simply having the bankroll to move up is not enough.

When I first started, I played very few SNGs and found myself at the $33s very quickly because I had the roll for them. However, it didn't take me all that long to realize that my game was not all that strong and I moved back down to the $22s (even a very short stint back at the $11s.) I worked on my game some more, which then resulted in a quick jump through the $33s into the $55s.

It is paramount to conintue to work on your game. When it all starts to come together, you find you'll be able to suddenly kill the level you are playing at, and be successful moving up. Although each level you go up is a bit tougher, if you've done the required work at the lower levels you should not have a problem.

[GambleGamble]

Ive thinking of posting ROI, etc questions as seeing as there has been a bevy of them recently I figured I can post them here...

...as Im leaving Vegas [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] in under a month Ive decided Im going to supplement my income through SnGs instead of live, Ive begun seriously playing SnGs for a couple weeks now to the point I've begun tracking them manually and just purchased poker tracker...all Im looking to do is make between 20k & 30k a year playing a couple hours a day...

...my story as of now is I was owed $130 and that is my bankroll on PP, since I got that money Ive turned it into just over $1200 through SnGs and a nice MTT score for $750 which isnt where I want to be but I won't have the time to truly dedicate myself to SnGs for a month or so etc....

...my stats are pretty much meaningless as I've only got 98 tracked SnGs under my belt but here they are anyways

All PP Speeds
$11 - 36% ROI (47 total)
$22 - 33% ROI (51 total)
Total - 34% ROI

Which from what Im reading seems high and that Im due for a major downswing...

...Basically Im curious if Im at all in the right direction

...Ive recently jumped up to $22s as my ROIs are similar and Ive made $200 more in them than 11s...am I an idiot for doing this...

...any opinions are greatly apprecitated, and once I get 1000 trnys played I plan on asking much more in depth questions but Im sure my sample sizes are truly terrible.

Thanks
GG

[DevinLake]

I think your question was basically addressed in the OP.

You have one requirement for the $22s, you have an adequate bankroll. So, how do you feel about your game? You're doing well so far, so I can only assume your SNG skills are adequate for the $22s as well.

I think as you progress and move through the levels, you have to do so on your feel for your game. Meaning, do you fell you are good enough to be playing at these stakes and higher stakes. The reason I say this is because if you are a winning SNG player, there really isn't much use in sticking at a certain low level long enough to get an adequate sample for you to truly statistically know how good you are. You simply have to rely on your feel for how strong your game is.

I did not have a significant sample of SNGs until I reached the $55s.

[Clayton]

GG,

100 sngs is nothing. like, zilch. there are ppl here who play 100 in a day and are like "hmm what kinda toast should i eat this afternoon"

how long did it take u to play these 98 sngs? I mean, i would recommend maybe learning multitabling more (like 8+) if its taken awhile. because if uve only played that many over a longish period of time, then the variance is obv gonna seem like a bitch.

lets see, my story... uhm. one year ago I was playing 22's on like a 1k roll, started playing NL cash in january with $1000 on bodog, turned that into like 11k thanks to some good results and a 6k score in an MTT... I've been in kind of a breakeven lull with cash games ever since March, though I've been v successful with tournaments of all kinds.

moving up depends on comfort. Right now I just 20-table the $27 turbos because it's fun and it doesn't really require effort and makes an easy $50/hr, which in college makes me a rich man. My working roll with these turbos is 150++ buyins so my risk of ruin is basically zero with my 15%-20% ROI.

So like I said, im a tightwad with bankroll management though I used to be insane, playing $1000NL on a 13k roll etc. Me moving up would require a big tournament win or something, because I have school and apartment payments and right now Im content with life and the luxuries I can get with $50/hr and FPPs for college life.

Here's the thing with moving up, guys. There is a huge, huge emphasis on bankroll comfort that needs to be stressed huge. I would wager that if you guys were playing SNGs like on PregoPoker trainer or whatever, full SNGs against real competition, but there was no money at stake and yet u played to ur best abilities, I would wager ur ROI in this vacuum is a few points higher than ur real life ROI, because decision making abilities can often be afflicted by the fears of losing or the greatness of winning or whatever. Therefore I like to stress playing at stakes where the money doesnt matter.

If u play $109's or $114's on a $2k roll and u can easily replace the bankroll and dont care if u lose it but want to win a lot of money, thats fine, seriously. But I might recommend some people in this forum not to play $114s on a $6k roll because losing $1000 would make them freak out or devastate them, etc. See what Im saying?

So a lot of it is situational. There is no right answer. But value what extra money potentially earned is worth to you, and compound that with additional risk and pressures of higher swings and figure out what makes u most comfortable but at the same time making the most.

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]
Ive thinking of posting ROI, etc questions as seeing as there has been a bevy of them recently I figured I can post them here...

...as Im leaving Vegas [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] in under a month Ive decided Im going to supplement my income through SnGs instead of live, Ive begun seriously playing SnGs for a couple weeks now to the point I've begun tracking them manually and just purchased poker tracker...all Im looking to do is make between 20k & 30k a year playing a couple hours a day...

...my story as of now is I was owed $130 and that is my bankroll on PP, since I got that money Ive turned it into just over $1200 through SnGs and a nice MTT score for $750 which isnt where I want to be but I won't have the time to truly dedicate myself to SnGs for a month or so etc....

...my stats are pretty much meaningless as I've only got 98 tracked SnGs under my belt but here they are anyways

All PP Speeds
$11 - 36% ROI (47 total)
$22 - 33% ROI (51 total)
Total - 34% ROI

Which from what Im reading seems high and that Im due for a major downswing...

...Basically Im curious if Im at all in the right direction

...Ive recently jumped up to $22s as my ROIs are similar and Ive made $200 more in them than 11s...am I an idiot for doing this...

...any opinions are greatly apprecitated, and once I get 1000 trnys played I plan on asking much more in depth questions but Im sure my sample sizes are truly terrible.

Thanks
GG

[/ QUOTE ]

GG, Don't expect a huge downswing, but realize the volatility of shortterm results. In this case if you even take out one win from your small sample at the 11s and 22s your respective ROIs would be ~26% and 24%. Once your smaple reaches a couple of hundred, then your ROi numbers will become slighty significant.

As far as your situation I don't see why moving up to the 22s isn't a good idea as long as your willing to move back down if you hit a rough stretch and your BR starts to affect the way you play. Its not your ROI that counts its the decisions you are making. Keep posting hands and possibly exchange HHs with other posters so you are getting feedback on your play. good luck.

[GambleGamble]

Thanks guys..

FWIW...being in Vegas and working a 60 hour a week job up til last week, hindered my time to play...

...generally when I do play I 3-4 table (my lap top sucks and I hate the [censored] overlap) I block em out and play until those are completed, but will be seriously upgrading my system once I move back to NY (played on a friends with no overlap and was playing 5 easily, so I am looking forward to it....

....I play about 10-15 a day when I play which is 3 times a week or so...

..Once in NY it will be 15 or so daily as I will be back in the 60+ hour work week grind....

...essentialy Im hoping to post a thread someday about turning $130 into kabillions