Thinking about gambling on the Bengals over

[Levarkin]

So much depends on Palmer, obviously. But even without him, this team has many strengths: rock solid at RB with Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry; a solid, capable o-line, a bunch of up -and-comers on D who could take significant strides forward this year. Even with Wright in, this team could be mediocre to good. Slot in Palmer, and the Steelers will have to be at their best to take the division.

So I did what I considered to be a pessimistic assessment of the Bengals' chances to win each game - pessimistic being without Palmer and with no surprises from Wright - and came up with eight wins. So I wouldn't bother with the total of nine if the over weren't so attractive at +160 on Pinny. A 40% chance (or greater) that Palmer is healthy or Wright plays respectably? I'm thinking yes, and that either of those two could add 10%-15% to my pessimistic win chances. I'll paste my assessments below; this is my first season playing with totals, so I may be off. A worthwhile gamble?

@ KCC 0.35
Cle 0.6
@ Pit 0.35
NEP 0.5
BYE
@ TBB 0.5
Car 0.5
Atl 0.55
@ Bal 0.55
SDC 0.55
@ NOS 0.6
@ Cle 0.5
Bal 0.6
Oak 0.6
@ Ind 0.35
@ Den 0.4
Pit 0.5

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
So I did what I considered to be a pessimistic assessment of the Bengals' chances to win each game - pessimistic being without Palmer and with no surprises from Wright - and came up with eight wins. So I wouldn't bother with the total of nine if the over weren't so attractive at +160 on Pinny.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think they'll win eight, then I think o9 +160 is a bad bet for you. You push if they win exactly nine, and only win if they win ten or more. If they're expected to win eight, I think eight or fewer is far more likely than ten or more, and +160 isn't enough.

Personally I think the line is where it should be. I also hate betting season win totals and tying my money up for a long time. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Good luck.

[Levarkin]

I think eight is pessimistic. I think they win more with a decent performance from Wright or having Palmer around for most of the season. I agree with your analysis though, so it depends a lot on how much I can add to my assumptions.

[Assani Fisher]

Without Palmer and in that improved division, they could easily be 5-11 or even worse. I don't think that will happen, but 8-8 is definitely not the most pessimistic of views. You're forgetting just how much parity there is in the NFL.

[Ballers83]

Ya, I like the Bengals to take 8 games