Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (Theory/Math)

[Barrin6]

Great post Goofyballer. I'm going to bookmarked this.

[maxtower]

jskinn04,

I am really interested in seeing some hand histories that you have played SCs in this way, just so I know exactly what you're talking about.

Max

[MyTurn2Raise]

this thread is freaking sweet [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[mornelth]

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Aslo, somewhat OT - what does "tl;dr" stand for? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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too long; didn't read
Urban dictionary def.

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TY

[krishan]

I think the conclusions are all wrong. You need to calculate how much you actually win when you flop a pushable hand. That's the key variable. That means calculating an EV for the pushable draws estimating your fold equity. If you assume 100% fold equity the EV of a combo draw is small. If you assume 0% fold equity, the EV of a combo draw is small.

I don't see how SC can be as profitable as pps.

Krishan

Krishan

[ata]

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Great point on position fizzle. It also applies to sets but it is just part of the considerations that adjusts your range toward the 5 rather than the 10.

You are right the effect is much greater when potentially drawing. I'll throw out some more estimates and maybe you or others can refine them:
1. you have a 5.6% chance of flopping big made hand, ~90+% equity =>
Expectation 60% of effective stack in position
Expectation 40% of effective stack OOP
2. you have a ~7% chance of flopping a strong (12+ outs) combo draw, ~50% equity =>
Expectation 25% of effective stack in position
Expectation 15% of effective stack OOP
3. you have a ~13% chance of flopping a standard OESD or FD, ~35% equity =>
Expectation 7% of effective stack in position
Expectation 2.5% of effective stack OOP

EV(IP) = .056*.6S+.07*.25S+.13*.07S-.75B = 0
EV(OOP)= .056*.4S+.07*.15S+.13*.025S-.75B = 0

IP situation: 0.08*S=B or our preflop bet should be <8% on average
OOP situation: 0.05*S=B or our preflop bet should be <5% on average

Leading to:
IP 5-10 rule
OOP 3-7 rule

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Interesting analysis...... how are you coming up with these expectation percentages?

[Elandriel]

OP posted:

OESD + flush draw + pair (20 outs ZOMG):
You need a flop of 87(6/5), 7(6/5)4, (6/5)43, with two clubs each.
8c 7c 6/5x: 2/50 * 1/49 * 5/48 * 3 = .0255%
Multiply by 3 to get odds for all three flops = 0.07653%. Not very high.

Is this right? why is it 5/48 and not 6/48 and why is it multiplied by 3 two times?

could be my fault but please explain.

[goofyballer]

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OP posted:

OESD + flush draw + pair (20 outs ZOMG):
You need a flop of 87(6/5), 7(6/5)4, (6/5)43, with two clubs each.
8c 7c 6/5x: 2/50 * 1/49 * 5/48 * 3 = .0255%
Multiply by 3 to get odds for all three flops = 0.07653%. Not very high.

Is this right? why is it 5/48 and not 6/48 and why is it multiplied by 3 two times?

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You're right; it is 6/48, which bumps it up to about .09%. Fortunately I screwed up on one of least frequent draws so it doesn't mess with the results too much [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The first time I multiply by three is because there's three different orders the cards come could in:
(8c/7c #1) (8c/7c #2) (pair card)
(8c/7c #1) (pair card) (8c/7c #2)
(pair card) (8c/7c #1) (8c/7c #2)

The second time I multiply by three is because we just calculated the odds of one specific flop coming, when there's three specific flops that could give us an OESFD.

[Elandriel]

Thank you

[martijn]

very nice, myself I'm very tight, maybe to tight, and I never call raises with sc's except 10-J occasionally.