PLO 200 Flopped top set, straight on board, what to do???

MadScientist · #1 08-19-2006, 05:52 AM

Villain could be raising with a wide range here and could be c -betting or on a draw. HERO?????????? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
I pushed. Is this bad? If so, it prolly isn't too bad.

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $211.30
UTG+1: $40
MP1: $210.25
MP2: $611.95
MP3: $267.21
CO: $100
Button: $638.61
Hero: $198
BB: $100

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls $2 (pot was $3), UTG+1 (poster) checks, MP1 calls $2 (pot was $5), MP2 folds, MP3 calls $2 (pot was $7), CO (poster) checks, Button raises to $17, Hero calls $16 (pot was $26), BB folds, UTG calls $15 (pot was $42), 4 folds.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($61, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button bets $58, Hero raises all-in $181, UTG folds, Button calls $123 (pot was $300).

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($423, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $423)

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($423, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $423)

Results:
Final pot: $423
Button shows Th Jc Ks 9h 
Hero doesn't show Js As Ac 3s

youdidwhat · #2 08-19-2006, 07:27 AM

Unfortunately it is very bad, because you are stacking off without the nuts. You cannot rely on a read here because there is no reason to suppose the button *does not* have the nuts.
If you want more certainty that OP has the nuts, make a smaller raise. You can then fold to a big reraise. Problem is that you are OOP, which is unfortunate for this kind of hand, and chasing to the river is very counterproductive.
If you check/call, probably best to fold on the turn. You could also be up against a player who won't pay you off when board pairs - so no nice implied odds either.

EDITED: Don't forget there is one other player to act, who could be trap checking. You are only beating a bluff, which maybe 1-in-3 times. Overall. I'd say this cannot be a +ev play however you look at it. Looking at yr stack size, a small reraise is almost pointless, as you are still getting half your stack in - so you may as well fold to the first bet, and certainly fold to a PSB on the turn.

RoundTower · #3 08-19-2006, 11:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately it is very bad, because you are stacking off without the nuts. You cannot rely on a read here because there is no reason to suppose the button *does not* have the nuts.
If you want more certainty that OP has the nuts, make a smaller raise. You can then fold to a big reraise. Problem is that you are OOP, which is unfortunate for this kind of hand, and chasing to the river is very counterproductive.
If you check/call, probably best to fold on the turn. You could also be up against a player who won't pay you off when board pairs - so no nice implied odds either.

EDITED: Don't forget there is one other player to act, who could be trap checking. You are only beating a bluff, which maybe 1-in-3 times. Overall. I'd say this cannot be a +ev play however you look at it. Looking at yr stack size, a small reraise is almost pointless, as you are still getting half your stack in - so you may as well fold to the first bet, and certainly fold to a PSB on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
lol

Silent A · #4 08-19-2006, 12:34 PM

To elaborate on Roundtower's "lol", the previous poster's analysis actually suggests that the push is good because, if button is bluffing 1/3 of the time you easy have the 0.43 equity you need for this line to be +EV. Also, you actually want UTG to get in here because there is no hand he could possibly have that reduces your overall EV.

The decision is push or fold. Calling is pointless since you only have 6 outs on the turn (unless you want to consider semi-bluffing when a heart hits), and mini-raising just gets you pot committed anyway.

IMHO, the correct move is completely player dependent. There are many players against whom a push here is definitely big -EV. In order for this hand to be a push against anyone I'd like to see that J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] become a T or a K (or, obviously, have 2 hearts in your hand).

My default against a random unknown is : on this very pre-flop raise friendly board, without any redraws, and holding one of your own outs I probably fold. But this is based on sightly lower levels where many, many players wouldn't pot here without the KT.

However, it wouldn't take much of a read on the button at all for me to push. In general, if button is willing to semi-bluff here about 1/4 of the time, you should push.

youdidwhat · #5 08-19-2006, 07:26 PM

Roundtower, happy to be dissed for complete garbage. Readers learn by (a) reading what the better posters say, and (b) from their own mistakes. However, if you can't be bothered to explain why what I said was boll.ocks, who gains? Furthermore, while I want my mistakes pointed out, the original poster may not now know why what I said is garbage in this instance - so that's two posters now confused, not just one.
I'd really appreciate it in future if you said, "you are talking crap - here's why".
Silent A, thanks for the explanation. In the meantime I'm going to run some sims. I will report back. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Cheers.

youdidwhat · #6 08-19-2006, 08:40 PM

Sims - I am not going to repeat all the possible combos that could occur, as I don’t know how to assign a probability to each scenario occurring.

Silent A, you say that nothing UTG has can reduce your equity. But your equity really caves in if UTG has middle or bottom set – doesn’t matter if they fold or decide to come along for the ride – depending on what button has.

Second point, while you gain $119 when UTG and button fold, if that is 1-in-3 times – that maybe generous – then there are several other scenarios that are poor for you.

If button and/or UTG call and/or reraise all-in:

Best case – UTG folds, button may call and you have the current nuts, but it is not too bad a call - eg, he has flush + top two + gutshot - he is a 42% dog.

Worse case: you are up against just nut straight, no redraws. You are two-to-one to win.

Bad case – as here – you are up against flush draw plus nut straight, 28.6 % dog.

Much worse: UTG has QQ, + a gutshout with a J, button has nut straight and flush draw – you are a 16.1% dog. Probably the worst case scenario – although if button has a pair as well it’s even worse. Clearly, this will not happen very often.

But does it happen often enough – including the other times you are a dog – to make that $119 profit more than offset the times when UTG and/or button call/reraise all-in, to make your CR show a profit?

I don’t know as I can’t work out all the possible combos you may face. Another bad scenario - UTG reraises all-in with nut straight and button folds. Going by the hands I’ve experienced I feel it is a very high risk play.

I now frankly have no idea of the ultimate EV of button being on a bluff one time in three or four with UTG on an unknown hand. So I think overall I still prefer the fold. But there is a strong possibility here that I am completely wrong, so if RoundTower or Silent A have any further thoughts they would be appreciated.

Obviously my original post was badly thought out.

RoundTower · #7 08-19-2006, 11:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Roundtower, happy to be dissed for complete garbage. Readers learn by (a) reading what the better posters say, and (b) from their own mistakes. However, if you can't be bothered to explain why what I said was boll.ocks, who gains? Furthermore, while I want my mistakes pointed out, the original poster may not now know why what I said is garbage in this instance - so that's two posters now confused, not just one.
I'd really appreciate it in future if you said, "you are talking crap - here's why".
Silent A, thanks for the explanation. In the meantime I'm going to run some sims. I will report back. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Cheers.

[/ QUOTE ]

In general I explain my thinking and don't just dismiss people's analysis as garbage. However here it was really bad.

The main problem is that you are winning about 90% of the time here, and the rest of the time you are 2-1 to improve. And the best case is not that your opponent calls you with some kind of huge combo draw, it is that he calls you with middle set and has one out. If you fold here you would be better off folding preflop.

Chris Daddy Cool · #8 08-19-2006, 11:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Also, you actually want UTG to get in here because there is no hand he could possibly have that reduces your overall EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

what if he has a set that redueces the number of pairing outs you have for your full house? or i assume you mean, if he *did* have a set, it wouldn't matter if he called or folded with that hand in terms of your pot equity (minus the 1 out for quads of course)

RoundTower · #9 08-19-2006, 11:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, you actually want UTG to get in here because there is no hand he could possibly have that reduces your overall EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

what if he has a set that redueces the number of pairing outs you have for your full house? or i assume you mean, if he *did* have a set, it wouldn't matter if he called or folded with that hand in terms of your pot equity (minus the 1 out for quads of course)

[/ QUOTE ]
yes I assume he means that. Also if he does have a set, him calling is good for you even though it takes away one of your outs, because he is putting money into the pot drawing almost dead.

Actually it is possible UTG has KT and the raiser does not: that is the only case that reduces your equity.

youdidwhat · #10 08-20-2006, 01:58 AM

OK, I confess, I'm at more of a loss now than when I read the original post. You are saying 90% of the time that trip As is the best hand. (Is it possible you could say how you get this figure or is it your own experience?)

Silent A recommends a fold against a random player but that there is no case for calling - i.e a push is better.

You are saying never fold - I assume that is your line if the 90% figure is correct. (Obviously you are not going to fold when you have C raised). If so, is it better to lead the flop, or are you confident that the button will bet and you can CR?
BTW, when the Hero CRs, I can't see the button call with just middle set. The only callers will be the made straight with/or good combos.

Thanks for your thoughts.