2/4 nut flush draw on paired board facing agression

[BenA]

PokerLoco 10 handed.

BB: Laggy and unpredictable. Usually waits til turn to c/r with anything good, draws with complete disregard for pot odds.

Button: Laggy donk. Pretty much will cold call PF with anything that has either a J or higher, 2 suited, or connected non-suited 1 gappers. Wish I had numbers, but might be like 75/40. Post-flop calls to river to spike any Ace or backdoor.

Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG+1

1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

5 to flop (10 SB)

5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks, Hero bets, 2 folds, button calls, BB calls.

3 to turn (6.5 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB raises, Hero calls, Button calls.

All I really wanted was a free card, and I can't really see betting again on the turn. Since I'm getting possibly 10.5:2 (if it isn't reraised), its okay to call here, right?

River: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB bets, Hero calls, Button calls.

I feel that the combined chances of getting the overcall plus the slight possibility I'm behind justify just calling. If this is totally stupid and I'm missing value against players who might call with anything, let me know [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Man of Means]

Well look a backdoor straight draw came in for J9, and the flush draw for someone with smaller clubs.
The turn checkraise looks like it was based on the assumption that you'll bet and trap the field. It says ha ha I have the Q, me trick you (yeah sometimes he has QT or 55).

Raise the river and call a 3-bet.

[mjkidd]

If you think it's very likely the button will overcall, then I think the river call is fine. Given your read, it seems likely that he'll call with as little as a 10 in this spot. Of course, if he's dumb enough to call 2 cold with a 10, then your missing a lot of value by not raising...but that seems unlikely. He might be dumb, but he'd have to hate money a whole lot to call 2 cold without at least a queen (and it seems unlikely he has a queen).

Nice hand.

[Mr. Orange]

Flop is fine.
Turn is ok. You've gotta odds (barely though) to make the call.
River- I'm raising here. Really your only worried about 3 hands (QT,55,TT)Button hasn't really shown any aggression in this hand despite having position so I'm not really worried about him. I think the most likely hand for the BB is Qx here. (although he probably would have played 55,TT the same way)You say this guy is LAGGY and unpredictable. With that being the case I'm not ready to give him credit for a boat here. If your ahead (which I think you are) by raising your getting atleast 2 bets (which is what you'd get by calling)but possibly more if the Button decides to call behind you.

[JJH3984]

I think the river call is fine. Because your hand is pretty well defined when you raise the river, if you get threebet you are probably losing. If BB is an idiot who will call two cold with a ten or five or other small PP, its an obvious raise though.

If you get threebet, you are losing most of the time so I wouldn't give Button a chance to put that raise in since you are making two bets anyway (with the caveat about the BB of course).

Edit: Turn is okay only because of your opponents.

[JJNJustin]

Pre-flop and flop are good. Sometimes I limp upfront with AJs, especially if you have dummies who play T7s and Q4s and stuff for one bet but will fold for a raise. A big part of the profits with suited aces is when you catch someone with a smaller flush and they put you on top pair.
But raising is fine.

Lets see, on the turn, you have a nut flush draw+a gutshot straight draw+two high cards. Your pot odds+future river bets are decent enough to usually make calling correct. The pot has 6.5 +2bb+2bb=10.5 BB+2BB(avg) on the river=12.5 bb. You must call 2 which means you must win
1 in 6 to break even. Your odds of making a straight or flush on the river is 1/4. So your pot odds are there, but you must adjust everything slightly due to the fact that one of the players may have a boat or may make a boat on the river. You may make your flush and the board may pair again, making you want to throw up. So you are looking at a break even or slightly +EV situation here.

However, if the guy behind you raises and the other guy caps it, you will be either folding, in which case you probably shouldnt call the raise initially, or calling 2 more for a total of 4BB. So you are calling 4bb to win 6.5+4BB+4bb+2BB=16.5 BB, which is still break even, or slightly -EV due to the fact that you will have to pay off if you make your hand on the river and may gey caught beteen them raising back and forth.

So my decision in this situation is highly read dependant. The point I wanted to make is that in some situations calling is good and in some situations folding is a little better.

I like the river flat call for the reasons you stated.

-J

[crablegs33]

i haven't even looked at the hand yet, but just given the reads on your two hands you've posted i think i'm playing at pokerloco very soon

[crablegs33]

given the opponent behind you i think a raise is definitely in order... i'd certainly call a 3 bet as well...

[BenA]

[ QUOTE ]
i haven't even looked at the hand yet, but just given the reads on your two hands you've posted i think i'm playing at pokerloco very soon

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't really matter if its PokerLoco, its just the Pokerroom network, and I've played there long enough to have some pretty extensive reads on many, many, players. Helps with table selection and strategy, and its starting to improve my winrate considerably.

[Mr. Orange]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i haven't even looked at the hand yet, but just given the reads on your two hands you've posted i think i'm playing at pokerloco very soon

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't really matter if its PokerLoco, its just the Pokerroom network

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd love to play at Pokerroom more but their software is just so horrible.