Thoughts on this hand

[cnfuzzd]

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
10 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $200
UTG+1: $145
UTG+2: $102
MP1: $250.46
MP2: $407.60
MP3: $200
CO: $53.80
Button: $1020.43
SB: $320.11
Hero: $507.04

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $5</font>, 2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($31, 6 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $29.45</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $117.8</font>


The co was shortstacked, and could easily be bet/calling with alot here, and with my repot and the stack sizes behind me, i assumed there was a good chance everyone else was folding. Your thoughts?


pjn

[youdidwhat]

I think it's a bit thin. I don't know why you make the PF call as I can't really see what you are hoping to flop.
On flop you have weak flush draw/straight draw where only 3 sevens give you the nuts. I think you can find better spots. The raise will likely drive out players behind unless they were trap checking a monster - in which case you are almost certainly toast.

[RoundersRocks!]

ballsy and creative, yes. But IMHO I think you over-thought it. Although there is alot they could be betting, I think there is also alot they are calling with. I like the spirit of it though.

[heresjohnny]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the spirit of it though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a joke?

Regarding the hand it looks ok, butdont be too surprised if some has checked a monster or something like QTh

[Troll_Inc]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a bit thin. I don't know why you make the PF call as I can't really see what you are hoping to flop.
On flop you have weak flush draw/straight draw where only 3 sevens give you the nuts. I think you can find better spots.

[/ QUOTE ]

To me, this is exactly the spot where you pop the pot with non-nut and flush draws because in theory you can drive out nut and flush draws. (I wouldn't want to call here or lead out the flop with a bet.) You want to play this hand vs a set or two pair. Also, I think you have may fold equity.

Downside, I do agree there are better hands to do this with, like a better straight draw.

[shpongled]

I would fold this hand preflop. You're calling a raise out of position with a hand with very little potential.

Same with postflop. Very few of your outs are to the nuts. I think there are much better spots to semibluff.

[cmyr]

the problem with this hand for me is that you don't even have a pair so you're a dog to any made hand and probably any serious draw. if you had a weak wrap instead of a weak OESD, this would be much more alright. I think there are too many players left to act here, although if you can be confident they'll get out of the way it isn't too bad.


I think the problem here is that quite often you'll see the villian turn over the NFD, and you'll be trying to hit six straighteners or to spike a non-heart pair.

[guilt_trip]

I agree with shpongled on both accounts both pre-flop and the semi-bluff.

Any read on the CO? Can he bet with a big draw or just a made set? You'll get the pot head up but if he has QTxx or even two hearts you're in a horrible position

I like the play but the situation isnt great as others have said

[Troll_Inc]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I think you have may fold equity.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's a mistake, if you succeed in isolating your opponent here, he doesn't have enough money left to fold.

[cnfuzzd]

All,

To further illucidate my thought process:

Preflop is in no way standard for me. I think its somewhat appropriate for this table though, as i had seen a couple of peeps who were willing to felt with things like naked aces when they thought they were ahead. This would seem to contradict what i say next, but it doesnt really in that these people aren't stupid, they just seem to always be paranoid that the big repot of their flop bet is always someone trying to steal from them. I was confident given the way that the action appears, i was getting called by very little from the players between me and the CO.


These games feature fewer players who are willing to gamble it up with big(but not huge/nut) draws than some of the higher stakes games ive played in. Most people, if given the chance, would, without a compelling reason to do otherwise, fold many of the draws that have me severely crushed. More importantly, except for the one largish stack in the middle, no one can possibly believe they have much fold equity against me, so the possibility of anyone moving in without the nuts draw is very slim. I think this is very often going to get folded back to the CO, who calls almost everytime.

AS for the co, he started the hand with 26bb's, and after the pf action he has the perfect stealing position. There have been numerous situations in which i watch the short stack in last position make a psb after being checked to and for good reason. Any hand he has here is going to probably win what for him is a reasonable amount of the time, and he can price himself in, and he is wanting to bust so he can rebuy or leave the table.


I also considered his stack size in relation to my raise. As long as everyone folds, im getting around $70 of my raise returned, so while my raise appears to be a very strong move with a large investment, it is in fact risking a relatively small amount. I understand that my pot odds arent great, but if im in a coinflip situation here, im fairly happy with my move, because i expect to make up any lost ev later in the game.

This is probably the most nebulous reason for the move. To me, this is a great way to cultivate a very gamboool type image at a relatively low cost to myself. The better players in this game, including myself, get to be that way simply by paying attention to who repots with what, and adjusting accordingly. While the best players in this game will never be fooled into make a truly stupid move against me because of this hand, this is a wide swath of players who will instantly see this hand and say "jesus, that move/guy is terrible." (one 2p2er who saw the hand said that i was terrible at omaha, and shouldnt play) These are the players that i feel will take my winrate above and beyond the normal expectancy, so if i can create a false image of myself to them, im more than willing to take a bit of negative expected value.


peace


john nickle