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#11
01-23-2006, 05:22 PM
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Re: Turn Action
[ QUOTE ]
I don't hate the weak lead for $45, but I would have bet more. The only reason to make a bet that size is to give weaker hands a reason to believe they are potentially ahead. The problem with this is that you may induce a large bet on the river. Absent a read, I would play a large pot with Villain on the river with top 2 on a fairly drawless board. In response to your specific question, I'd bet $120 on the river. [/ QUOTE ] If I bet $120 on the river, how often does a worse hand raise? Given the action thus far, I feel like I am ahead on river the vast majority of the time, but I feel like I am ahead a lot less when I am raised on the river... 
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#12
01-23-2006, 05:52 PM
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Re: Turn Action
You have to bet the river if you think you are ahead. The question is: How much will Villain call? Based on how he played the hand, my guess is (in order of likelihood) he has an ace or other hand he likes (eg. lesser two pair), a worse flush draw (air) or a monster (set). Given the board on the flop, this would be one of the worst played sets in modern history. Given that, I want a river value bet that he can call. As I said earlier, I'm willing to play a big pot here on the river as the hand was played. Im not certain that's correct, but it's what I think is correct.
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#13
01-23-2006, 06:51 PM
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Re: Turn Action
There is no way in hell I am folding this on the river. Bet $100-$125 and have him pay you off. Call any raise, including a push. He would have definately raised the turn with a set...
This one is easy. I can't see how you are no good here.
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#14
01-23-2006, 11:27 PM
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RESULTS
[ QUOTE ]
There is no way in hell I am folding this on the river. Bet $100-$125 and have him pay you off. Call any raise, including a push. He would have definately raised the turn with a set... This one is easy. I can't see how you are no good here. [/ QUOTE ] This is what I was thinking at the time as well. I was having a hard time putting him on anything, maybe a backdoor clubdraw that hit, maybe an ace thinking i would call, maybe a weird bluff. It just seemed like a lot of big hands (flopped set/straight) would raise the turn with 2 flush draws out there, and also to build the pot a bit. Amyways, I ended up betting $100-$125 (can't remember exactly what off the top of my head) and then I called his push and got shown 33 for the flopped set. I'm still not sure exactly how I feel about my play, except that I should've got a bit more in on the flop. I couldn't think of too many hands he would raise with on the river that I beat, but I really didn't think he'd play a big hand like that on that board, to be honest... thanks for the replies
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