Stud suckouts and variance

[Todd]

So I had a really crappy session yesterday, with lots and lots of ugly (and I mean really ugly) river suckouts. Lost like 40 big bets at one table.

It got me to thinking about two issues.

First, most people have an aversion to pain, and when your KK44 goes up against 8855 and villian spikes river to beat your rivered boat, one response is to try and make sure that this doesnt happen again.

I know that this is the wrong view to take, since this villian is the one who will call you down with your winners, and you ultimately make a ton off of him.

The second issue is one of variance. At a .5-1.00 table, what is normal expected variance, assuming that you are a winnign player? The default buyin for stars is 20 Big bets, but one hand played out normally, with 1 raise = $4-5 big bets. So 20 BB seems like a bit thin as far as buy ins are concerned. Do most people buy in for 30 or 40 big bets, or just rebuy when they loose half their stack.

Thanks in advance for any comments,

Todd

Here is another hand from the same session. Did I revert back to weak passive by checking on 6th and 7th? I reasoned that villian must have something, what with all the check calling. Does anyone play this different?

7 Card Stud High ($0.50/$1.00), Ante $0.05, Bring-In $0.25 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 7: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (4.20 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___folds
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (3.10 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (5.10 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks

River - (5.10 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___checks
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks

Total pot: (5.10 BB)

Results (in white):<font color="white">

Total pot $5.10 | Rake $0.20

Seat 1: [Qs Js Tc As Qc 6d 5s] (a pair of Queens)

Hero: [Jc Jh 5d 6h Ac Kc Th]

</font>

[Wahoo73]

I have purely unscientific advice for you regarding the size of your buy-in.

Playing at levels less than 2/4 at Poker Stars, I almost always buy-in with just 15 times the BB. The ante's are a small enough at this level and I usually find the play passive enough that this will easily get me through the 20-30 hands I need to evaluate whether or not I want to stay at that particular table or find another game. Speaking of which, my experience playing on-line is that if I am not making money in a game after 30 hands, I probably won't make money in that game.

As for playing stud at 2/4 and higher at PS, I usually will buy-in for 20 times the BB or higher, depending on the average size of the other stacks already at the table. This last factor is purely psychological I suppose, but I do think that it is important not to sit down at a 3/6 table with only 120 when everyone else has over 200 and the average size pot is $40 or more.

Speaking of which, I'd recommend that you not only decide how much to buy-in for based on the aforementioned factors, but also the average pot size of the game you are joining. I suppose a good rule of thumb is to buy-in for an absolute minimum of three times the average pot size.

As for re-buys...I don't do them. If my stack gets so low as to not be cost effective, I leave. What do I mean by cost-effective? If I don't have enough left to cover the ante, the BI, a half-bet on 4th, and 3 BBs, I usually leave. So, at your $.50/1 table, if I didn't have $3.80 left, I'd probably leave. IMO, from a psychological standpoint, re-loading just puts more pressure on you to recover your losses and sends a signal to the rest of the table that you're desperate.

As for your posted hand, I probably would have tried the 6th street "stop 'n go," i.e., check 6th and with opponent checking behind, auto-bet the river. I very rarely have tried this maneuver and been called and lost to a single overpair on the river. Unless you had a read on your opponent here that he was an extreme calling-station, I suspect that checking 6th and betting 7th would have induced a fold from him.

[KJack9]

You played the posted hand fine, Your opponent started out with a decent drawing hand and he improved while you didn't thats all. As for variance, I just like to keep in my mind that if I have the best hand by 5th street(usually 2 pair or better)I am a favorite which means I will USUALLY win so I welcome all callers. Suckouts do happen but solid agressive play will prevail, especially at the limits you play. As for the buy in, I do 20 because in limit your stack size doesn't matter you just need enough to play. If you get low you can always rebuy, and if you feel more comfortable starting with 40 bets then go ahead because it may just improve your play psychologicly.

[Andy B]

Unless you're on a short roll, buy in for more that 15 BB. And there's no reason to leave a good game just because you get stuck 15 BB.

As for the original poster's question, I usually buy in for 20-25 BB, and usually reload if I get below 10-15 BB.

You played the hand you posted about right, in my estimation.

[blappo]

Something I've thought about, and it may only be a small factor, is that when new players sit down at a table, they might assign some meaning to the size of your stack. If it's big, they could easily think you'd won it all, instead of buying in larger than the default. That might get you (a little) respect. So with that in mind, I usually buy in with 40 BB.

[SweetLuckyMe]

Not at all. You bet with the best hand and checked when you were no longer best hand. Well played - you were either a small favorite or a big dog and checking was correct on both streets. Why the fool didn't bet 6th and 7th I can't figure out. Accept his gift and consider it a "win", even though you lost the pot.

As far as buyin amounts, I like to have plenty - usually 25BB to start and refill any time I get lower than about 10BB. I don't want to ever run out of chips and not be able to cap when warrented. It has happened to me in the past when I just lost a big pot, so was down to 4 or 5BB and the site didn't credit the rebuy until the following hand (although it was made within plenty of time). I get a huge hand and plenty of action only to be all-in on 4th or 5th street. There is NO worse feeling than having a lock on the pot and no ability to get more money in. Don't EVER let it happen - it's the same as flushing money straight down the toilet. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]