100NL Bottom set, nit raises me on flop

[fizzle]

Why not call and push a safe turn? You lose the same versus a higher set, but villains equity drops on a blank turn if he's drawing, effectively making you more if he calls.

[Freerollin`]

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are you guys serious? Unless this guy limp/reraises w/ his big pairs, your fuxxored. Fold and move on.

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Worst. Advice. Ever.

This dude is so aggressive he plays draws faster than I could have my pants off with a naked Scarlett Johansson in my bed.

This is not only a set.

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Mos is right.

I think that this is the nut flush draw 70-80% of the time and I want all the money in ASAP. If he's this aggressive, he's raising 99 & TT UTG almost all the time.

[TNUC]

re-raiiiiise big style . dont let him hit his draw cheeply . your still ahead nearly all the time here

[Hince]

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are you guys serious? Unless this guy limp/reraises w/ his big pairs, your fuxxored. Fold and move on.

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The guy raises 4% of his hands, limp reraising is definately in his aresnal. Just using bayes theorem, you are ahead most of the time.

[nogenius]

What's Bayes' Theorem?

[*grendel*]

Could villan be holding Jc 8c here, or would that be too loose a preflop call for him UTG? I'm pretty new to NL, but it seems that might be a possiblity.

[mlagoo]

no way a 13/9 is limping UTG with J8.

im not even convinced that T9 is in his range.

seems like this is AA, ATs, Ax(cc), QJ, 88 and occasionally 99.

i would just push because i think it looks more like a draw (or a combo, 98 type hand).

[Dan Bitel]

Give him just AA into his range and getting AI is +EV:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

11,880 games 0.071 secs 167,323 games/sec

Board: 7c Tc 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.6751 % 45.10% 01.57% { 7d7h }
Hand 2: 53.3249 % 51.75% 01.57% { AA, TT-99 }


so do whatever it takes to get AI

[bilbo-san]

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What's Bayes' Theorem?

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem

This is T9, or J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or hell, 88, as often as it is a set.

3-bet and call a push. Realise though, that your edge is not as big as usual here. You are probably only 60:40 here unless he has T9 or 88.