NL200 Flop nut flush draw + TP

[NT!]

Yeah get it in. Turn blank, river heart, ship it.

NT

[KingGordy]

Close, but I fold. I know every other poster is going to say push, but with villain's stats I think you see 88/99 too much.

Edit: On second thought it's probably a push. I guess if you add A8 and A9 to his range, as well as AK or AQ.

[mikechops]

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Why are we pushing? I figure we have zero fold equity. The guy has put almost half his stack in on a 3-bet. At best, we are racing against his range. Seems almost 0 EV to me. Isn't calling better?

Board: 8h Ad 9h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.1061 % 45.90% 00.21% { AhJh }
Hand 2: 53.8939 % 53.69% 00.21% { AA, 99-88, A9s-A8s, QhTh, 98s, 7h6h, A9o }

I'm not saying a push is wrong - I just want someone to tell me why it is better than a call/evaluate line.

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the board pairing is very bad for our hand and we could be ahead here vs bad villains. id rather get my money in now.

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How bad does the villain have to be, to be behind here? You figure he's 3-betting with AT? His stats weren't particularly aggressive. I think any non [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is not good for us. I'd rather pay $50 for 1-shot than $180 for two.

[wslee00]

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WHAT??? How can you even consider this a fold? Even if he flips over a set you still have to call.

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if he flips over a set, your push is -EV. Even with a call, it's still 0 EV and you can't call a turn push if you miss.